AFL Premiership odds update and Gather Round 5 wrap

The Gather Round weekend provided plenty of twists and turns as we head towards that one day in September where we will crown the 2023 AFL premiers.

Who are the favourites to lift the trophy?

MELBOURNE DEMONS: $5 (via bet365)

Despite getting hammered by Essendon on Saturday evening, Melbourne still remain the favourites to win it all in 2023. The loss of Jake Lever was not at all ideal, as was the 40+ minutes the Demons played without a goal.

For now, it’s possible to view it as ‘one of those days’ but that could all change if the Demons lose to Richmond next Monday night at the MCG.

COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES: $5.50 (via Ladbrokes)

Take the W and move on is the way Collingwood will be looking at their win over St Kilda on Sunday night. Nick Daicos furthered his Brownlow credentials with 42 disposals in another best on ground performance.

The loss of another tall in Dan McStay is of real concern as the Pies come up against Essendon and Sam Draper - in what will be the most anticipated ANZAC Day match-up in a long time - before taking on Riley O’Brien and the Adelaide Crows in Adelaide. That’s two phenomenal ruckman against... Ash Johnson?

For Collingwood fans and bettors, maybe wait before taking this price.

BRISBANE LIONS: $7.50 (via Ladbrokes)

If the Lions kicked straighter over the weekend they could have had well over 200 points. That’s about the only negative to take away from the Lions big win over North Melbourne.

The Lions had the chance to go in for the kill and did just that.

Daniher, Hipwood and Cameron combined for 13 goals in what feels like a warning shot to the rest of the AFL.

The Lions now need to repeat the performance on the road against GWS this weekend.

GEELONG CATS: $7.50 (via Ladbrokes)

The Cats won, but did let West Coast kick 10 goals in the second half. Was it a case of the foot coming off the accelerator, or have the Cats still not clicked?

There was a 10 minute period in the second quarter that was pure magic as Geelong piled on nine goals and Jezza Cameron helped himself to a handful.

Tom Hawkins looks fit finally, but the injuries to Tyson Stengle and Rhys Stanley is of huge is a concern.

A huge Grand Final match-up on Saturday night against the Swans will show us where Geelong is at: the $7.50 still seems too short.

SYDNEY SWANS: $10 (via bet365)

Without their three best backmen on Friday, the Swans blitzed Richmond late to win by 44 points. The margin does not tell the story though: in the third quarter the Swans let in seven goals to give Richmond a sniff, before booting seven of their own in the last quarter to win well.

Tom McCartin and Dane Rampe should return against Geelong this weekend which gives the Swans its Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins matchups instantly.

Joel Armartey is set for an extended period of time on the sidelines, do the Swans rush Lance Franklin back in? Or give him another week to recover and leave it up to Isaac Heeney, Tom Papley and Logan McDonald?

Since 2016, the Swans are 4-1 at GHMBA Stadium: a win this week gives them a lot of belief and will likely catapult them into third or fourth best odds for the flag.

CARLTON BLUES: $11 (via Ladbrokes)

The Blues got walloped in every facet of the game on Thursday night against Adelaide.

Was it an off night against a team in red-hot form at home? Or are Carlton not playing that great this year as its wins have come against North Melbourne, Geelong (who have only beaten Hawthorn and West Coast) and GWS?

For now, given how good the wins v Geelong and North were, let’s call it an off night.

Sunday afternoon against St Kilda should give us much more insight and the $11 is a wait and see price.

ST KILDA SAINTS: $17 (via bet365)

St Kilda suffered their first loss of the season on Sunday night, but the Saints showed a tonne of grit and if they had another minute or so could have stolen it against Collingwood.

That performance shows that the Saints should not be tossed aside, even given the soft draw it had to start the season.

If the Saints can get past Carlton on Sunday at Marvel, we’ll be talking about the Saints as legit finals contenders, if not flag contenders.

PORT ADELAIDE POWER: $19 (via bet365)

Port slugged out a tough win against the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night in miserable conditions.

Two tough wins on the bounce should fill the Power with a lot of confidence and when you look back on the first month of footy, Port’s form is quite good.

The Power should win again this weekend against West Coast, we can look at them once again after round six.

ESSENDON BOMBERS: $23 (via bet365)

We may need to take the Bombers seriously in 2023: the way in which they picked apart the Melbourne Demons was something to behold.

The Bombers withstood the challenge and tossed the Demons off the park.

Now the Bombers head into ANZAC Day to take on Collingwood in what looks to be the most anticipated clash between the two teams in years.

If Essendon can win again, we will all need to take them much more seriously and you can bet these odds will shorten dramatically.

WESTERN BULLDOGS: $26 (via Ladbrokes)

The Dogs showed once again that they are a team that is very meh: there are flashes of brilliance and they can look really good.

But these Western Bulldogs are just a plain vanilla cake that doesn’t offer much in the grand scheme.

If the Dogs are to be taken seriously in 2023, beating Fremantle in Perth is the way to go about it.

RICHMOND TIGERS: $26 (via bet365)

I’ll call it: the Tigers are done and not a flag contender. The meek fourth quarter effort against the Swans showed that.

Yes, the Tigers had their injuries and issues but came up against the Sydney Swans without their three best defenders and Lance Franklin (plus were without Joel Amartey for three quarters).

The third quarter was brilliant with seven goals.

But that has been Richmond this season: 20 mins of brilliance with 60 of mediocrity thrown in. Samson Ryan will be having nightmare about his game and Shai Bolton despite 22 touches had no influence.

This week’s ANZAC Day-eve lash with the Demons is a season-definer.

ADELAIDE CROWS: $26 (via bet365)

Are the Crows finals smokies? They have dispatched Carlton and Port Adelaide with ease in the past two weeks and almost look akin to the Swans of 2021-’22 – a lot of exciting youth who have stepped up and ageing stars who are holding on and playing well.

An expected win this weekend against Hawthorn before they take on Collingwood in a fortnight’s time at the Adelaide Oval makes for exciting times for their top 8 odds.

• FREMANTLE DOCKERS: $51 – Top 8 – $3.75 (via bet365)
• GWS GIANTS: $201 – Top 8 – $13 (via bet365)
• GOLD COAST SUNS: $201 – Top 8 – $13 (via bet365)
• NORTH MELBOURNE KANGAROOS: $401 – Top 8 – $31 (via bet365)
• WEST COAST EAGLES: $401 – Top 8 – $51 (via bet365)
• HAWTHORN HAWKS: $501 – Top 8 – $51 (via bet365)

[all odds as of APRIL 17]

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