Carlton’s Tom De Koning enters the 2023 AFL season as one of the league’s most intriguing players

It’s a mandatory disclaimer from superannuation funds, and it’s also the basis upon which Tom De Koning is among the most hyped and discussed out-of-contract players in the AFL this year.

Already linked to Essendon, St Kilda and Sydney, the intrigue around the Carlton tall’s future will only grow with each week his future remains unresolved.

The Blues have got on the front foot, securing Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay on long-term deals last year ahead of what would have been their respective free agency years in 2023. Carlton has in recent days also announced extensions for former captain Sam Docherty, tall defender Lewis Young, and 2022 draftees Lachie Cowan and Ollie Hollands, both of whom will make their debuts against Richmond in Thursday night’s season-opener.

In a year of relatively modest free agent options – Darcy Parish, Mason Redman, Ben McKay and Harrison Himmelberg being the headline acts – De Koning has become a central figure in player movement speculation.

On the eye test, it’s clear why. More than two metres tall, De Koning’s leap is spectacular in full flight. He moves well for a big man, can take a commanding grab and his centre bounce work is progressing.

That his younger brother – Geelong’s Sam De Koning – emerged as a bankable key defender in a top side last year contributes to the interest.

There is generally a premium paid for key position players (see Callum Coleman-Jones and Daniel McStay in recent seasons), so it stands to reason that De Koning should not be an exception.

That’s good news for the 23-year-old because entering his sixth season in the league, having been drafted at pick No.30 in 2017, the output has not been commensurate with the attention.

From 41 AFL matches, De Koning – playing largely as a ruckman/forward – has kicked 12 goals, averaging 2.6 marks, 15.5 hit-outs and 9.8 disposals per game. Clearly stats aren’t everything and it is widely accepted that talls take longer to develop than smalls, but the challenge is to project just what he will become.

Adding to the complexity of the situation is that Carlton is in a “win now” phase. Patience from the Blues faithful after 27 barren years, nine outside the finals and last year’s late-season capitulation, is wafer-thin. Carlton is not really in a position to prioritise potential over performance.

If Marc Pittonet, 26, and Jack Silvagni, 25, both also uncontracted beyond this season, are better options for today, that will make it exceptionally difficult for the Blues to prioritise De Koning for the tomorrow.

CODE Sports canvassed the views of football department figures from around the league to ascertain what they thought of De Koning, nicknamed “King” (Koning is Dutch for king).

The consensus: he clearly has star attributes but they haven’t yet clicked with any consistency.

“Getting paid on potential”; “Shown a bit”; “A lot of hype for the output thus far”; “Really like him but hasn’t really put it completely together”; and “Undoubtedly a big-time talent but hasn’t particularly delivered on it” are a cross-section of responses. One club official said De Koning was probably worth around $500,000-$600,000 but could end up getting closer to $800,000.

One rival recruiter asked: “Would people be talking as about him as much if his brother didn’t break out last year?”

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The other query is what is actually best for De Koning’s football. One recruiter said he was better suited as a ruck rather than as a forward but that is not a universal view. And in any case, if he is going to have to play at least some time forward, is a club that already has Curnow and McKay really the best place for him?

It all means that despite having never polled a Brownlow Medal vote, there will be few players around the league being watched as closely this year as De Koning.

It is a fascinating subplot at a fascinating club.