Champion Data: Adelaide Crows’ revival starts with Izak Rankine but goes much deeper

‘One-paced’, ‘blue collar’, ‘conservative’, even ‘boring’ have all been descriptions of the Matthew Nicks rebuild at times.

But with a 4-2 record and hosting Collingwood in perhaps their biggest home and away game for years, these Crows look different.

Champion Data has found a range of changes to their game style this season, and many have Rankine’s fingerprints on them.

Rankine high

Rankine may not have reached 20 disposals in a game so far this year, but the quality of his touches has the Crows humming.

Last weekend with Adelaide in a hole against lowly Hawthorn, a touch of Rankine ingenuity tiptoeing around the boundary line and defenders to create a goal from nothing catapulted them back into a game they would win.

This season he is Champion Data’s fifth-highest rated small forward in the game, second for score involvements. He’s kicking goals and in the upper echelon of contested possessions per game (7.5) for his position, with the rare knack of winning more contested ball than uncontested ball.

The high-priced recruitment of Rankine was met with scepticism by many, but so far it’s working. In 2023 he’s the only Crow Champion Data rates as ‘elite’ for their position.

Kicking precision

Rankine’s skills are only one part of the equation. All of a sudden, Crow kicking has improved out of sight.

Typically there is a risk versus reward with kicking. The hardest kicks to pinpoint open up the greatest scoring options, but also represent greater risk of turnover and scores against.

Champion Data’s ‘kick rating’ measures the success of kicks against the degree of difficulty expectations.

Last year Adelaide ranked last in the league at -2.7%, but in 2023 they’ve flipped the script, currently tracking at +2.2% and sitting second-best in the league.

It‘s an enormous turnaround that is bearing fruits in other areas.

Their broader kicking and disposal efficiency has gone from so-so to among the league’s best, while they have become the best team in the league for scores per inside 50, registering on the scoreboard for 50.5% of entries.

Hardballs, short kicks

Digging deeper into this kicking transformation, a picture of the Crows’ change in game style emerges.

They’ve put a focus on contested possession and hardball gets, ranking one and two in the AFL for those differential measures after sitting midtable in 2022.

This has complemented the kicking change. Winning contested possession in this manner has allowed more control of the ball rather than chains of panicked handballs or long bailout kicks.

They kick short and deliberately, as evidenced from the club going last to sixth in uncontested marks. All up the Crows have gone from the most handball-happy team to the fourth-most kicking team in the AFL, prepared to take the angles and change direction with short kicking as opposed to conservatively kicking the ball long down the line.

Not everything is perfect for the Crows though.

Centre clearance and stoppage work is still a major concern. They currently sit 17th for centre bounce scoring differential and bottom five for centre clearance and overall clearance differential.

These are the areas oppositions will attempt to exploit as scrutiny rises alongside their ladder position.

Emerging stars

Newly appointed captain Jordan Dawson has been the Crow who has rocketed into league consciousness as a top-line AFL player in 2023, but he and Rankine are not the only ones.

A host of high draft picks from recent years in Luke Pedlar, Chayce Jones, Riley Thilthorpe and Josh Rachele have been big improvers, all lifting their average AFL ratings points per match significantly.

Key forward Thilthorpe is intriguing for the aptitude he is showing when he spends time in the ruck. He’s only spent 115 minutes rucking as a back-up, but is averaging 19.1 rating points per 100 minutes when there, second among the 37 players in the AFL to have played 100 minutes in the ruck.

His future may be more adaptable than envisaged.

Excitement at Adelaide Oval

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Anyone who watched the Crows open Gather Round by dismantling Carlton can understand why excitement is back at the Adelaide Oval.

Rankine is one part of the overall puzzle, but his contested and creative game seems to have infected many. The likes of Rachele are also thriving.

Young emerging teams are expected to hit a wall mid-season after an initial flurry, but a win against Collingwood would fire belief for Adelaide to poke holes in that wall with its new precision short kicking game.