Footy tipping 2024: How to win, tips.com.au sign up and more

That has been the tried and true guide to tipping in the AFL for the past 15 seasons, and long may it continue.

Ahead of the 2024 season starting, the data boffins have partnered up with TAB to determine how to win your tipping leagues and earn plaudits within your office.

According to TAB, 69 per cent of favourites since 2009 have won, with heavy favourites (less than $1.50 odds at TAB) winning at a whopping 78 per cent.

It pays to follow the heavy favourite, it turns out.

Backing in the home team has a slight edge, but for all the talk about a ‘home-ground advantage’, it doesn’t really exist in the AFL: only 54 per cent of home teams have won since 2009.

Playing sides coming off a shorter break has its advantages, with 53 per cent of longer-break teams winning games, regardless of favouritism.

Home-ground advantages

Brisbane has the best home-ground advantage in the AFL, based on 2023’s form. The Lions won all of their 13 games at the Gabba, while winning just six of their 13 games away from the ground. Their ‘home’ record was actually 14-0, thanks to a big win during Gather Round. The Lions piled on 100.2 points per game at the Gabba, while also only conceding 65.7 points per game in 2023.

Collingwood’s home-ground advantage is also one of the strongest in the league, with 11 wins from 13 home games at the MCG. The Magpies’ home record, as well as their record at the MCG, are slightly different due to both Gather Round and playing away games at the MCG, which skews their 85.7 per cent home-ground win rate. Collingwood’s true MCG record was 14 wins from 17 games; an 82.3 per cent winning rate at the ground.

West Coast and North Melbourne were the worst sides away from home, with the bottom-two sides winning just one game (of 12) each on the road. Neither were much better at home; winning two home games each, with both Eagles’ home wins coming at Optus Stadium. North Melbourne secured one home win at Marvel Stadium (v West Coast in round 1) and one at Blundstone Arena in Hobart (v Gold Coast in round 24).

Of the top eight sides, Greater Western Sydney surprisingly had a poor home-ground record, with a 4-4 record at Giant Stadium and a 1-2 record at Manuka Oval. However, the Giants were the strongest side away from their home grounds, being the only side to secure 10 ‘away wins’ (including one ‘home’ game at Gather Round). Carlton won nine away games in 2023, while Collingwood secured eight victories as the visitor.

Geelong fell away after its premiership in 2022 with just 10 wins for the season. Interestingly, the Cats only won one game outside of Victoria, with a lone victory over West Coast in Gather Round the only time. That game handed the Eagles their third-highest score of the season (89 points) in historically one of their worst-ever seasons. The Cats won six of nine games at GMHBA Stadium, which historically has been a fortress for them.

Gold Coast is likely a different team under Damien Hardwick, however they will want to start winning on the road if they want to contend for finals. The Suns went 5-3 at Heritage Bank Stadium in 2023, however were a dismal 4-11 away from their home ground.

Primetime slots

For the sake of argument, ‘prime-time slots’ is only Thursday night and Friday night games, as well as marquee matches that fall on Monday (Easter Monday, Anzac Day Eve and King’s Birthday) and Tuesday (Anzac Day), with only the home-and-away matches counted.

The South Australian clubs were statistically the best performers in prime-time slots, if you go by percentage. Port Adelaide won all four of their games that well on a Thursday or Friday night, while Adelaide won its only prime-time slot match. Brisbane won the most prime-time games and had the third-best percentage of wins, claiming seven victories from nine matches, while premiers Collingwood secured six wins from their 10 matches.

On the other side of the coin, Essendon was statistically the worst prime-time team, losing all three of their match-ups in the slots. The Bombers were one of four sides (Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast) to not win a match in their respective slots, however the other three sides only played one game each.

With the fixture completed up to round 16, only Hawthorn and West Coast have missed out on a Thursday or Friday match, however the Hawks will play on Easter Monday against Geelong. The Giants have been given one Thursday night match but no appearances on Friday nights, while Geelong’s marquee slots have dropped from eight last season to five in 2024.

Originally published as Footy tipping 2024: How to win, tips.com.au sign up and more