Henry Winter: Why Mohamed Salah is my player of year but Kevin De Bruyne could change my mind

Five minutes after I’d cast my vote for the tournament’s best player, Zidane headbutted Marco Materazzi, was shown the red card and a glorious international career ended on an ignominious note. Shorn of their talisman and No 1 penalty-taker, France lost the shootout 5-3.

Too late. The vote was in, and Zidane was named player of the tournament with 2,012 points ahead of the Italians, Fabio Cannavaro (1,977) and Andrea Pirlo (715). Never mind the ballots, Cannavaro and Pirlo finished the evening with World Cup winners’ medals hung around their necks while Zidane hung his head in shame.

The reason for this short trip down memory lane is that timing is everything in sport, even in voting for the individual awards, which brings us to the tricky matter of the footballer of the year and player of the year votes now occupying the thoughts of writers and players respectively.

Choosing the most deserving winner last season was straightforward as the Premier League was sewn up, Manchester City were running away with it, and the only debate was whether it should be Ruben Dias or Kevin De Bruyne who claimed the honours. Dias earned the Football Writers’ Association (FWA) award and De Bruyne took the Professional Footballers’ Association (PFA) honour.

This year is more complicated because the title race will not be decided by the time the votes are in. De Bruyne and Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah are the two main contenders, and of the 11 players likely to come under consideration to varying degrees, Liverpool and City have four apiece, another reflection on the quality of this title race.

Footballer of the year polling opened on March 25 and closes at midnight on April 27 with five Premier League games remaining. The winner is announced on April 29. Player of the year voting began last week and finishes at midnight on May 8 with three Premier League games remaining.

The FWA does admirably to delay the vote as long as it can given the logistics, which are complex this year. Finding a date for a London hotel for the awards ceremony has been difficult given the backlog of events post-Covid. May 5 was the best available date, meaning voting being brought forward. (The awards night is usually the Thursday before the final Premier League fixtures.)

The players’ union, which would usually make its decision before the writers, is hosting a virtual ceremony on June 9, allowing it slightly longer in voting. The PFA hopes to have its actual event back next year for the 50th anniversary of its award.

The issues over timing play into the frequent debate over whether player awards should also reflect which teams win silverware. It should. The game is about winning as well as the expression of individual expertise. The Premier League season concludes on May 22, with the FA Cup final on May 14 and the Champions League final on May 28.

So there is the outlandish possibility of Salah, 29, winning the quadruple with Liverpool and the Premier League Golden Boot for top goalscorer, yet not being footballer or player of the year. Or City doing the treble and De Bruyne, 30, not being celebrated for his own sublime prowess. It cannot be helped given timings and particularly because of this compelling title race with only a point separating two thoroughbreds.

Salah is the favourite with the bookmakers. He started the season powerfully, scoring 15 times in 12 games for Liverpool, but 2022 has been less productive, partly slowed by his participation in the Africa Cup of Nations with Egypt, with only six goals in 14 games for his club. He is still the Premier League’s leading scorer with 20, three ahead of Tottenham Hotspur’s Son Heung-min (plus eight in the Champions League).

Salah’s 11th assist of the season was a delicate pass into the path of Sadio Mane for Liverpool’s second equaliser against City at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday. Salah is a remarkable player, a joy to watch as he weaves past defenders or outruns them, the picture of poise and balance as he enters the penalty area, either looking for a teammate or deftly transferring the ball on to his left foot and scoring. There is a picture on social media of Salah twisting away from City’s Bernardo Silva, his sinews straining, as if doing some punishing leg weights in the gym. Salah is a real athlete as well as an artist.

But the case for De Bruyne is strengthening. City’s captain is the man in peak form, as proven against Liverpool. As a team player, he is focused solely on driving City on three fronts but his present brilliance is particularly well timed with voting open. De Bruyne was named man of the match on Sunday, not simply for his goal but for being part of City’s press and releasing teammates into the space afforded by Liverpool’s high line. Statistics shared on social media highlighted that 23 of his 29 passes were completed, which is a fine return but doesn’t reflect the difficulty. De Bruyne delivers through the tiniest of gaps, instantly, with opponents trying to stop him.

Others involved at the Etihad will also feature in deliberations. For City, Silva impressed in a range of positions with his energy, intelligence and passing. Joao Cancelo has been outstanding defending and attacking, whether at left back or on the right. His dribble past Salah and Jordan Henderson was one of the highlights of a game that boasted a galaxy of them. Phil Foden, who is still eligible for the PFA young player of the year trophy, plays with a maturity and composure that belie his 21 years.

Interestingly, City’s leading scorer with 22 goals (and seven assists, all competitions), Riyad Mahrez, and one of their most consistently excellent players, Raheem Sterling, are not considered in the running by the odds-makers. Sterling has responded positively to the arrival of the pounds 100 million Jack Grealish and keeps being picked by Pep Guardiola, whether on the left or, as on Sunday, through the middle. Sterling continually sets such high standards that – maybe – his excellence, seen in this season’s 14 goals and seven assists, is taken for granted.

Sterling’s old club Liverpool offer up a quartet of possible contenders. As well as Salah, Diogo Jota will surely be on the PFA shortlist. In 28 appearances in the Premier League this season, the nimble Portuguese has 15 goals and his dexterity is reflected in their spread: four headers, five with his right foot and six with his left. Virgil van Dijk will feature in the thoughts of some judges as will Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Three others will doubtless be considered by some. Antonio Conte’s transformative work at Tottenham Hotspur has enticed the very best out of Harry Kane and Son. Kane’s ability to deliver both as a No 10 and a No 9, his eye for the killer through-pass and his often-overlooked important presence defending set pieces, has made him even more of a complete player. His understanding with Son is one of the great link-ups of the present game. Son himself is devastating when one-on-one with a goalkeeper. The only other player outside the top two likely to get a mention in dispatches is Declan Rice, such a driving force for West Ham United at only 23.

But the individual pursuit comes down to Salah and De Bruyne. If the voting deadline were today, I would go for Salah but another fortnight of sustained De Bruyne virtuosity could swing it. Timing is everything. Just don’t mention Zidane.

– The Times

Originally published as Henry Winter: Why Mohamed Salah is my player of year but Kevin De Bruyne could change my mind