Who Wins a World Cup Final Between France and Argentina? Qatar

It landed in a ritzy corner of Paris, not far from the Champs-Élysées where the country’s sovereign-wealth fund was looking to buy property, and picked a soccer team to become its flagship sports investment. The club was Paris Saint-Germain, and Qatar planned to turn it into the New York Yankees of soccer.

Eleven years later, those twin projects — PSG and Qatar 2022 — are converging for a spectacle that goes far beyond even the country’s wildest dreams: a World Cup final, in the desert, headlined by two of Qatar’s most famous employees, PSG teammates Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé.

With this final, a country that had never even appeared at a World Cup before this year has co-opted decades of soccer heritage. Argentina and defending champion France have played eight finals between them. They each have two titles.

And on Sunday, one of their superstars is already guaranteed to claim an indelible piece of soccer history. For Messi, lifting the World Cup would be the crowning achievement of a sparkling, era-defining career. For Mbappé, it would mark a second world title before the age of 24, vaulting him into the rarefied air reserved only for Pelé.

The hosts don’t have a preference — either way, that history will forever be associated with Qatar.

But millions of soccer fans around the world have picked a side. The prospect of Messi finally capturing the sport’s grandest prize in what he says is his final appearance at the tournament, might be the only thing capable of uniting the soccer-watching globe — with the possible exception of France, Brazil and one 37-year-old citizen of Portugal.

“Any team he’s in is completely different,” said France playmaker Antoine Griezmann, who played for France four years ago when Les Bleus eliminated Argentina in a 4-3 thriller in the round of 16. “They’ve got Leo, but also a good group behind him…. And they’ll have the crowd on their side.”

Even Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, who have nine Champions League titles and 12 Ballon d’Or awards between them, have never won the World Cup. Mbappé might do it twice with perhaps three more chances still in his future. Pelé remains the only player to have won it three times.

“He’s one of the best, if not the best, in the world at the moment,” said England defender Kyle Walker, who faced Mbappé in the quarterfinals. “You know you have to stop him, but that’s something that’s easier said than done.”

The irony is that the people actually participating in the final don’t believe it will be defined by individual artistry. The buzzword for France and Argentina at this World Cup has been suffering. Argentina manager Lionel Scaloni has used the word no fewer than a dozen times in his news conferences in Qatar. His players, who pride themselves on how much they have endured at this tournament, reach for it like a welcome cup of yerba mate.

“We have to understand that all this suffering is worth the colours of our shirt,” Argentina’s Nicolas Tagliafico said here.

French players are doing it too. They emerged sore and exhausted from their semi-final victory over Morocco, a match they found about as enjoyable as a trip to the dentist.

“We were on the back foot at times, but we had to work hard for each other,” defender Jules Kounde said. “This is a team that knows how to suffer.”

This World Cup has been more demanding than most. The timing, shifted away from the traditional summer slot and into November due to the Qatari heat, crunched the entire tournament into a historically narrow window. Banged up players had less time to recover between leaving their club sides and joining their national teams — it was barely a week for most of them. The teams that reached the final will have played seven matches in just 27 days.

So it’s no coincidence that France and Argentina also happen to be two of the deepest squads here. Argentina was able to switch out five starters to get back on track after being upset in the opening game by Saudi Arabia and 19 of its 23 outfield players in Qatar have contributed at least 45 minutes over six matches. None has made a bigger, more surprising impact than Julián Álvarez, who didn’t crack the starting line-up until Argentina’s third game. Two weeks later, he scored two goals in his team’s 3-0 semi-final win over Croatia.

France, meanwhile, had to ring the changes before the tournament even kicked off. Manager Didier Deschamps lost two of his most productive strikers, Karim Benzema and Christopher Nkunku, to injury after initially naming them to the squad. By the time he called up Randal Kolo Muani to replace Nkunku, Les Bleus were already checked into their Doha hotel. On Wednesday night, the last guy on the roster did his part to put France in the World Cup final. He scored the second goal against Morocco just 44 seconds after coming off the bench.

“I don’t realise what I’ve done,” he said afterwards. “I’m still on a little cloud.”

If the surprises on the roster put France and Argentina in the final, there is no question who the world expects to decide it: Messi or Mbappé, Mbappé or Messi. Whichever way it breaks, one of them will make history and, a few weeks from now, both of them will feel a little awkward.

Once they get home to Paris, still working for Qatar, Messi and Mbappé will go back to sharing a locker room.

-The Wall Street Journal