‘Biggest gamble of my life’: How trainer Bjorn Baker bet on himself … and won … ahead of 2025 Tancred Stakes at Rosehill Gardens

Because no matter how much vigour jockey Rachel King uses on Arapaho, Baker will be “riding” even harder.

When the trainer’s horses are in a winning position in races, the arms start flailing and the cheers are ear-piercing as he urges his runners to the finish.

If they win, there’s some force in the back slaps and bear hugs he gives to those near him. Even strangers cop it.

Baker’s wife, Andrea, knows to keep her distance on race day but uses her phone to expertly capture the trainer’s most demonstrative moments before loading them onto her various social media platforms for the world to see.

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“Andrea does all my social media and she does a really good job,’’ Baker said.

“She understands the power of social media and from a marketing point of view that can only help when you are having a good run.’’

Andrea Baker has had plenty of opportunities to record her husband’s histrionics on social media in recent months.

In fact, since December 1 last year, Baker has trained an extraordinary 83 winners on all tracks, including 51 Sydney races.

His stable’s surge of success has taken the trainer to 67 city wins for the season and a clear second on the Sydney trainer’s premiership behind 14-time defending champion Chris Waller on 101 wins.

Baker has trained the winners of a stable record $18.1 million prizemoney already this season – and there’s still more than four months of the 2024-25 season remaining.

He’s also trained 20 Group or Listed winners, another stable record, including a Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes with Overpass.

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“It’s been remarkable,’’ Baker said when asked to comment on his stable’s winning momentum.

“I do have a great team around me and we are getting a better class of horse into our stable these days.

“Obviously, as a trainer you want to be competitive over The Championships coming up at Randwick but at this stage of the season, we could not be going better.’’

Baker’s strikerate of winners to runners in the metropolitan area is an extraordinary 22.6 per cent. He’s the only trainer in the top 20 rankings with a strike-rate above 20 per cent.

“Our strikerate has been great, we have had a lot of promising horses come through and my team is placing them in the right races,’’ Baker said.

“We have had a tremendous run, for sure. I’m second in the metropolitan premiership and if I can hold onto that I would be absolutely thrilled.

“If we can stay second, it would be a bit like winning the premiership in some ways because Chris (Waller) is so dominant.

“In the short term we are just trying to do the best we can because Sydney racing is so competitive. You can’t rest on your laurels, you have to stay focused.’’

Which brings us back to Arapaho, one of Baker’s elite stakes-winners this season after he took out the Group 2 Zipping Classic on a heavy track at Caulfield last November.

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Arapaho has returned to racing this autumn in very good form and has a real chance of becoming the first horse since champion Tie The Knot (1999-2000) to score a repeat win in the Tancred Stakes.

“I reckon Arapaho is going better now than when he won the Tancred two years ago,’’ Baker said.

“He’s improved with each run this preparation and his work this week has been great.

“There is some rain forecast which is no problem for Arapaho as he gets through any type of track and the 2400m really suits him.’’

Arapaho is a rising nine-year-old contesting his 43rd race but he has been lightly raced during the previous 18 months due to some persistent but minor ailments.

Baker believes this has contributed to Arapaho’s outstanding form and indirectly extended the gelding’s race career.

Arapaho earned the reputation of an “iron horse” during 2022 when he contested 15 races over a nine-month campaign culminating with a Melbourne Cup start, finishing 11th to Gold Trip.

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Then during the following autumn, Arapaho had three lead-up runs going into the Tancred Stakes where he produced a career-best effort to edge out Montefilia in the nation’s only Group 1 weight-for-age race over the classic distance of 2400m.

But when Arapaho returned to work in the spring of 2023, that was when the gelding’s problems began.

“He’s had a couple of relatively light years because he kept getting elevated temperatures at weird times,’’ the trainer said.

“It was an odd one because he would pick up a virus and that would mean we had to turn him out for a spell again.

“But this autumn he has been fantastic. He’s fit and healthy and that is showing in his racing.’’

Arapaho resumed with a competitive fifth to Fangirl in the Apollo Stakes, ran a similar placing in Via Sistina’s Verry Elleegant Stakes then beat all but Vauban in a Sky High Stakes thriller two weeks ago.

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In latest TAB Fixed Odds betting, Arapaho is on the third line of betting at $6 behind English raider Dubai Honour ($3.40 favourite) and Vauban ($4).

This is one of the strongest renewals of the Tancred Stakes for many years with nine individual Group 1 winners among the 14 starters.

They include Dubai Honour, the 2023 Ranvet Stakes and Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner and a Group 1 winner in Europe, Duke De Sessa (Caulfield Cup), Circle Of Fire (Sydney Cup), Land Legend (The Metropolitan), classic winners Warmonger and Asterix, Vauban and La Crique.

“This is going to be a tough Tancred but Arapaho can definitely run a big race,’’ Baker said.

“Arapaho’s done a great job over a number of years now. He’s been immeasurable for our stable, you need a horse like him that keeps coming back year after year and racing at a high level.

“He’s pretty straight forward, he’s got a great attitude, he’s very laid-back and to be honest, he’s a piece of cake to train.

“Given his age, he’s very sound and the important thing is he loves what he is doing.’’

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Arapaho’s emergence as an elite stayer was a gradual process over a number of years and, in a sense, reflects Baker’s rise in Sydney racing.

Baker has come a long way since he moved to Sydney nearly 14 years ago to set up his training business at Warwick Farm with more empty boxes than horses in work.

The easier option would have been to stay in his native New Zealand and continue the training partnership he had with his legendary father, Murray. But Baker was keen to forge his own career and has never regretted the move to Sydney.

“It was the biggest gamble of my life,’’ Baker said

“But Andrea was supportive of the move, we actually met in Sydney, she has family here, and I’ve always liked Sydney.

“So, from that point of view it was easier coming here than going to Melbourne.

“It was a risk at the time as I didn’t have much firepower but thankfully it has paid off.’’

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Baker joked “there is no turning back now” after his family was granted Australian citizenship earlier this month.

The trainer’s successful season and his popularity on social media has landed some personal endorsements including a Toyota Forklifts television advertisement.

But Baker’s zeal for winning has also meant he’s become a victim of that very Australian malaise, the tall poppy syndrome.

The trainer has vowed not to change his ways despite some negative criticism on social media.

“There’s a lot of hard work that goes into this game so you have to enjoy the wins,’’ he said.

“I believe the majority of people are fair-minded but some say things on social media they would never say to your face.

“They seem to treat it differently to usual social norms but I try not to let the negative comments get to me. I’ll be honest with you, I think Andrea keeps most of them away from my eyes anyway.’’

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Bjorn Baker’s hopes of winning his first Golden Slipper ended disastrously when his top filly Within The Law crashed through the running rail mid-race at Rosehill Gardens last Saturday.

But Baker has been pleasantly surprised how well Within The Law has come through that ordeal and is considering racing her again during The Championships at Royal Randwick.

The Within The Law incident occurred near the 700m of the Golden Slipper, won by Marhoona.

The stewards report noted Within The Law was eased back early and was being directed towards the inside when the filly “appeared to panic, became unbalanced and ran through the running rail”, dislodging jockey Jason Collett.

Fortunately neither horse nor rider were injured and Within The Law actually chased home the Golden Slipper field along the inside of the course proper.

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“Within The Law has pulled up well and only had a little scratch on her,’’ Baker said.

“Initially I was going to put her straight out but she is bright and well and has taken absolutely no harm from the incident.

“They are only two-year-olds once and I am thinking of going to the Percy Sykes Stakes (Group 2 $1 million, Royal Randwick, April 12) with her next month.’’

But Baker’s immediate focus is Rosehill Gardens on Saturday where Arapaho leads the stable charge in the Group 1 $1.5 million Tancred Stakes (2400m).

The trainer has four starters at the Rosehill meeting including promising three-year-old Deal N’ Dash in the Group 2 $300,000 Tulloch Stakes (2000m).

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Baker had designs on setting Deal N’ Dash for the ATC Australian Derby after the three-year-old’s impressive debut win at the Rosehill midweeks.

But Deal N’ Dash then ran well below the trainer’s expectations when only fourth of five at Canberra in a Class 1 race won by Autumn Aroha, who is also among the entries for Tulloch Stakes.

“I don’t know what happened at Canberra, he just didn’t fire a shot, it was extremely disappointing’’ Baker said.

“We were devastated because he was so good winning on debut.

“But he’s much better than that and he’s done so well since that run I want to give him another chance. I’ve also entered him for Wyong on Saturday.’’

Baker’s father, Murray, trained a record five Tulloch Stakes winners and two of those, Quick Thinker (2020) and Jon Snow (2017) backed up the following week to win the ATC Australian Derby.

Deal ‘N Dash is at $11 in early betting for the Tulloch Stakes behind the promising King Of Thunder at $3.60.

Baker is also hoping Sandpaper can earn a start in the Group 1 $4 million Doncaster Mile next week by winning on Saturday.

Sandpaper, a last start winner of the Newcastle Stakes, will line up in the Group 3 $250,000 Doncaster Prelude (1500m).

“I’m not sure about Sandpaper if we happen to get a really wet track but he is very fit and in great form,’’ Baker said. “He was tough at Newcastle and has trained on well.’’

Baker’s other runner is Thunderlips in the Rosehill closer, the Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap (1400m).

Originally published as ‘Biggest gamble of my life’: How trainer Bjorn Baker bet on himself … and won … ahead of 2025 Tancred Stakes at Rosehill Gardens