Corey Parker: My predicted winners and losers for NRL season 2023, with Cowboys as premiers

For starters, I can’t see Penrith winning three premierships in a row, though I’m backing Nathan Cleary to claim his first Dally M Medal. I’m tipping the Roosters to meet the Cowboys in the grand final – with North Queensland winning their second premiership and first since 2015. And here is my predicted ladder:

1. Cowboys

2. Roosters

3. Panthers

4. Rabbitohs

5. Eels

6. Broncos

7. Storm

8. Sharks

9. Sea Eagles

10. Raiders

11. Bulldogs

12. Wests Tigers

13. Titans

14. Knights

15. Dolphins

16. Warriors

17. Dragons

The Cowboys now understand what it takes to win a competition. They don’t even need to find an extra gear, as such, they just need to do it all again but this time finish the job.

They have what it takes offensively and defensively; elite defence has become part of their identity. I think the way that the game is officiated now – fast and free-flowing – really helps their style of play. And their young talent pool, mixed with experience in the right places, is seriously impressive. They can go all the way under Todd Payten.

The Dragons, meanwhile, look like an absolute rabble and I’ve got them winning the wooden spoon. Here’s what I make of all the (non-Queensland) teams.

Roosters

I’ve got the Roosters finishing in the top two. It’s a sensational roster, starting with James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou, Joey Manu and Joseph Sua’ali’i, so it’s just a matter of whether the Roosters can stay fit and healthy; which hasn’t happened in recent seasons. Can Luke Keary play a full season? Who knows.

People have their opinions about Sam Walker at halfback but he’s still just a young kid. What he’s been able to achieve at his age is pretty good. Matt Lodge is my kind of front-rower, then you’ve got Lindsay Collins and the Butcher brothers, plus the old bull Jared Waerea-Hargreaves on the bench. Brandon Smith is a huge addition at hooker, as probably the best running No.9 in the game. Angus Crichton may not play much football this year, but you’ve got Victor Radley. It’s a strong side, to say the least.

Tedesco remains their barometer but if the Roosters are to go a long way this year, Keary needs to be at the forefront. He’s a triple premiership-winning half, has plenty of experience now, and a lot will fall on his shoulders this year. Again, can he stay healthy, after suffering so many head knocks? It’s a big ‘if’, one that could have a massive say in what happens with this year’s competition.

The Roosters are genuine premiership contenders. There can be no doubt of that with the quality at their disposal, plus a triple premiership-winning coach in Trent Robinson. When fit, they will always be hard to beat and they have players who know what it takes to go all the way.

Panthers

Penrith have been the best club over the past three seasons but the by-product of that success, in the modern NRL, is that the salary cap pulls apart your roster. Apisai Koroisau and Viliame Kikau are massive losses, having already lost Matt Burton last year, and Stephen Crichton and Spencer Leniu (at least) will follow after this season.

Do they still have the team to win the competition, becoming the first to claim three in a row since Parramatta in 1981-83? I believe not.

They’re still a top-four team; the NRL-best development systems put in place will prevent them falling away too far. But to lift the trophy again is a massive ask.

With respect to Mitch Kenny, the No.9 position is no longer a genuine point of attack with Koroisau gone. Top teams have at least five points of attack – fullback, five-eighth, halfback, hooker and perhaps an elite back-rower – and the Panthers have also lost Kikau’s unique threat on the left edge, plus some exceptional defensive skills. We got a little glimpse of that depleted threat in Penrith’s World Club Challenge loss to St Helens.

Jarome Luai now has to form a new combination on the left. Taylan May is already gone for the year through injury, having been incredible on the wing last season.

With the likes of Luai, Nathan Cleary, Dylan Edwards, Isaah Yeo and James Fisher-Harris remaining in place, this is still a powerhouse football team, make no mistake.

The Panthers will be thereabouts, certainly, but I personally don’t think they can win the competition again.

Rabbitohs

There’s something not quite there with South Sydney. The numbers speak for themselves: four preliminary finals in a row, with just one grand final appearance for a loss. What’s missing, to finally take them to another premiership?

Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker are clearly the pivotal players. Walker needs to find that added composure to go with his brilliance; the ability to be rock-solid and consistent when it matters, rather than just flying by the seat of his pants and letting things get under his skin. If he doesn’t have a cool head, as the chief playmaker, then that filters through the rest of the team. Lachlan Ilias had a really good season at halfback last year but remains the junior halves partner, while Damien Cook continues to prove quality and experience at hooker. Cameron Murray is one of the best players in the game, while there’s a depth of quality in the pack with Jai Arrow, Keaon Koloamatangi and Tom Burgess. Campbell Graham and Alex Johnston have represented Australia. Clearly, Souths have the ingredients to win the comp.

But if Latrell and Cody aren’t on top of their game, and their emotions, cracks start to appear. Latrell is the real key, and he’s a baffling one at times. Last year, he was talking himself up in the third person, saying that he was going to put on a show, then got upset when opposition fans started to boo. If you’re going to talk it up, you can’t whinge about a few boos; especially when you’re so crucial to your team’s chances of winning. And this pre-season, there’s been the whole police drama with Jack Wighton.

I’ve got Souths as a top-four team but do they have what it takes to finally win a competition? Only time will tell if they’re capable of that next step after so many near misses. Always, the premiership window is gradually closing.

Eels

You need a lot of things to go right to win grand finals; something the Eels know only too well, having been waiting since 1986. What I can say is that Mitchell Moses, who as halfback gets all the scrutiny, isn’t the problem. People will snipe about him being a good front-runner or whatever, but for mine, that come-from-behind win against North Queensland in last year’s preliminary final proved to us what he’s all about. Penrith were just too good the following week; they overpowered the Eels pack and barely let Moses play in the decider.

As I hear it, we’ll know very soon whether Moses is staying or going, on a deserved lucrative new contract. Moses is undoubtedly Parra’s man. So much of their future hinges on his contract decision. He pulls the strings.

Josh Hodgson replaces Reed Mahoney at hooker. Hodgson can overplay his hand at stages and Parra will hope his body holds up. Isaiah Papali’i is a huge loss on the right edge but Shaun Lane had a breakout year on the left, so the onus is on him to continue that form.

With their power game through the middle centred around Junior Paulo, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Ryan Matterson, plus Moses, Dylan Brown and Clint Gutherson, the Eels have a great team. I’ve got big raps on young J’maine Hopgood. It’s still a top-four calibre team, though there are some concerns defensively relative to other top teams, which I’m sure has been a focus in pre-season. Will Penisini, who is still learning his trade, is a bit of a question mark at centre; so too Waqa Blake.

The Eels at their best are fast and physical, coming at you all the time with speed. They’ll be threatening for a top-four spot again and they’re good enough to win a premiership, if their defensive flaws are fixed and their key players remain healthy.

Storm

This is going to be an extremely interesting year for the Storm. While you have to be careful when speaking about a champion club, this is the first season in memory where I can’t see them as genuine premiership contenders. While I’d never write them off, I don’t really think they can win.

The playing personnel that they’ve lost is so significant; guys who really embodied the club’s DNA. Jesse and Kenny Bromwich, Felise Kaufusi, Brandon Smith … all those guys played crucial roles, both in attack and defence. That’s 791 games of experience, gone. Three set-and-forget players who are first picked every week, plus a Test-calibre hooker. Trent Loiero, Eliesa Katoa and Josh King now make up the back-row. It’s unrecognisable; those guys have big boots to fill. And now, does big Nelson Asofa-Solomona re-sign, or go to rugby?

Nick Meaney at fullback didn’t quite work last year, to the extent that Cameron Munster spent time at No.1 when he’s the Test five-eighth, yet Meaney starts there again for round 1 with Ryan Papenhuyzen still sidelined for a while. Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant is still a pretty fair remainder of the spine, but they’ll miss Papenhuyzen until he returns.

Are the Storm finally on the slide, just lacking the playing stocks? Does Craig Bellamy re-sign again, or does his long reign finally come to an end after this season? Deadset, Bellyache is getting to the John Farnham stage – it feels like it’s been his last season for the last five!

There are big questions over the Storm, off the back of their first finish outside the top four since 2005 (barring the 2010 salary cap penalty season). Their culture and system is second to none, so they’re not going to implode by any means, but I’ve got them in the lower finals spots.

Sharks

I don’t see the Sharks going as well as they did last year. It felt like you blinked last year and all of a sudden, somehow, Cronulla finished second. Credit where it’s due: their defensive resolve last year was terrific, under new coach Craig Fitzgibbon, and that should hold them in good stead again this season.

Will Kennedy had a breakout season at fullback last year, while Matt Moylan played the most consistent he’s been for a long time. Nicho Hynes was terrific, obviously, winning the Dally M Medal. I reckon Blayke Brailey is a great player, one of those really solid guys that every team needs. Their forward pack has decent skill and quality. Siosifa Talakai is coming off a big last season in which he played Origin. But all told, I can’t see them finishing second again.

I’m expecting Nicho to pick up right where he left off. But having said that: is Nicho Hynes actually the best player in the NRL? No, he’s not. With great respect to what he achieved last year, he doesn’t get a start in those conversations alongside the likes of Nathan Cleary, James Tedesco, Tom Trbojevic, Cameron Munster and Latrell Mitchell. Nicho was absolutely brilliant last year but his role sees him dominate play for the Sharks and he runs the ball more than any halfback in the comp barring Jahrome Hughes. That dominant role saw him poll enough votes to win the Dally M, and good luck to him, but I don’t think anyone would tell you he’s really the NRL’s best player.

I’ve got Cronulla just inside my top eight. You have to respect how they played to finish second last year but I just can’t see a repeat.

Sea Eagles

Manly should be a lot better than last year, having imploded after that rainbow jersey controversy. I’ve got them right on the brink of playing finals football; they certainly have the quality if things go to plan. I rate Anthony Seibold as a coach, despite what happened at Brisbane, and Shane Flanagan seems a good foil.

Manly at their best play a tough, gritty style of footy. The game plan under Seibold and Flanagan should further entrench that DNA. Then there’s the brilliance of Tommy Trbojevic and the experience of Daly Cherry-Evans, Josh Schuster having to fill the shoes of Kieran Foran after getting his long-anticipated crack at No.6, plus the seriously underrated Lachlan Croker at hooker. The back-row has serious quality with players like Jake Trbojevic, Haumole Olaku’atu and Kelma Tuilagi. Christian Tuipulotu is a strong set-starter on the wing and Reuben Garrick is a proven performer.

That side, on their day, can trouble anyone. Schuster, who looks to have the edge over Cooper Johns at No.6, is a big part of the puzzle. He’s like many young players: talent has never been a problem, it’s just a matter of finding consistent performances. Tommy Turbo’s fitness is the biggest factor of all. When he’s fit and playing well, he must give his teammates such a lift. Everything is better when he’s there.

I have Manly on the brink of the top eight. They’re certainly good enough to play finals football if everything comes together.

Raiders

Canberra scraped into the eight last season and won their first final, before getting hammered by the Eels in week two. With few changes to the roster, I figure they’ll be running in a similar spot this season; perhaps just outside the finals.

A key difference between the Raiders and other sides that might fancy themselves a chance of playing finals is that Canberra turn up most weeks and have a red-hot crack. You can’t question their effort of their intent, their willingness to compete. Sometimes, that’s brought undone by dumb football, but they like to have a go. That’s an essential part of any good team’s DNA.

Xavier Savage will miss the start of the season but is a bright young talent. Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty seem to complement each other in the halves. Hooker is an issue, though Danny Levi at least brings a bit of experience to the No.9 jersey. The pack is their obvious strength: Elliott Whitehead, Josh Papali’i, Joseph Tapine and the like. Tapine was exceptional last season.

The Raiders will be thereabouts. You have to admire a side that turns up to compete and that’s a given with Ricky Stuart as coach. The noise around Canberra as a possible new home for David Fifita has been interesting; Ricky would be good for Dave, adding the grit to the pure talent.

Bulldogs

There’s a lot of eyeballs on the Bulldogs, with their gradual upgrading of the roster and an excellent new coach in Cameron Ciraldo. To be honest, I haven’t been drinking the Koolaid like many have. We all want the Bulldogs to go well, given they’re a great club that’s gone poorly for a long time now, but I certainly can’t see them playing finals football this year. Losing Luke Thompson long-term to a foot injury certainly isn’t a helpful start.

Their spine contains two quality players in Matt Burton and Reed Mahoney; Burton almost single-handedly starred for them last season at No.6 and Mahoney is a big recruit at hooker. Then you’ve likely got Hayze Perham at fullback and Kyle Flanagan at No.7. That doesn’t suggest to me that Canterbury will make a dramatic rise on the ladder just yet, even when you factor in another huge addition in Viliame Kikau and some potential improvement from the likes of Tevita Pangai Jr. Hopefully one or both of Perham and Flanagan can also cement their position.

The Bulldogs will be competitive. The one upside of their recent poor seasons is that they’ve usually turned up and had a proper crack. They’ll be better than they were last year, no doubt, but I’ve got big reservations about speculation of a big leap up the table. They don’t quite have that across-the-board quality just yet, though Stephen Crichton hopefully ticks the box at No.1 from next season.

The thing they can focus on getting right this season is defence; and Ciraldo is known as a defence-minded coach. The Dogs have to get back that famed mentality of staying in the fight no matter what, which could see them around that 9th-11th area on the ladder; an improvement, and a step towards a first finals appearance since 2016.

Wests Tigers

Maybe, just maybe, there’s something there for Tigers fans this season. Yet I throw them in the same boat as the Bulldogs. I can certainly see them having a better year, not hard when they’ve just won the wooden spoon, but I’m not drinking the Koolaid about a dramatic rise up the ladder. I just can’t see that yet.

David Klemmer, Isaiah Papali’i, John Bateman and Api Koroisau is a strong recruitment drive, no doubt. The problem is that the rest of that roster was all there last year and look what they dished up. Even four quality players can only do so much in a wooden spoon-calibre roster, so it will be a matter of gradual improvement. I can’t see them playing finals football.

Daine Laurie, Adam Doueihi and Luke Brooks are the existing spine players; talented, but yet to deliver any form of success. Koroisau is a massive signing, having proven himself an elite No.9 at Penrith, where he clearly had far more to work with; it will be a challenging year for him in that regard. I really like all the pack signings. They’re been there and done it, they’re hard-edged and they want to win. The Tigers have had a soft underbelly for too long and they can help to change that. Stefano Utoikamanu can develop into a really good player under their watch.

The coaching situation will be interesting, with Tim Sheens having taken over and Benji Marshall being groomed as the future head coach. Both are attack-minded and defence has been the glaring problem for Wests Tigers for a long time. Sheensy is a brilliant innovator and Benji’s playing career speaks for itself, but Dave Furner – the defensive coach – has the biggest job among the staff. On a hot afternoon at Leichhardt Oval, it’s great that you can throw the ball around, but can you grind out a 12-10 win? That’s where hardheads like Klemmer and Bateman may help.

I’ve still got the Tigers a few spots outside the eight. If things go well, perhaps they’ve just got a sniff of a finals spot, but we’ll have to see massive changes to what’s been dished up over the past decade.

Knights

I’ve got major concerns about Newcastle. They’re coming from a tough place, after finishing 14th last year and the easy thing to do is throw up your hands about where they’re headed as a club, from the top players down.

Dane Gagai has been way off the boil in club footy, for a long time. You question whether Bradman Best is serious about becoming one of the best centres in the game. Dominic Young is apparently going to the Roosters. Jackson Hastings was forced out of the Tigers. Daniel Saifiti lost his State of Origin spot to his brother, Jacob. And Kalyn Ponga, their marquee player … does he actually want to be the captain and play No.6, or have they just put him there because they feel as though he needs to? This isn’t Origin, where we’ve seen Kalyn perform so well. There, he doesn’t have to do any of the extra stuff, with all the stars around him. You need to do more and look deeper when you’re the captain of a struggling club.

I don’t know Kalyn as a person, so these are purely my observations. But if I’m player No.26 on that roster and I’m looking at my captain, closely watching the habits of the skipper and $1 million superstar, I’d just scratch my head. He just doesn’t strike me as a leader, at all, and I wonder where they’re heading as a football club with him as captain. You look at the captains at other NRL clubs and he just doesn’t stack up. Being the most skilful player doesn’t mean you’re the captain. A captain sets examples that every other player can emulate and I just don’t know how Kalyn provides that.

On the Knights roster, I’m looking at Jayden Brailey as that player; a cleanskin, a tidy footballer who works his arse off, a level head on and off the field. That’s what I want my club to stand for, especially in a place like Newcastle, where the team needs to reflect their hardworking, footy-mad fans who have still turned up through so many tough seasons in the past decade.

Chuck in the likes of Brailey, Tyson Frizell, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Kurt Mann, and the Knights actually have a roster that should be going better than they are. That is not a roster that should come 14th, yet I can’t see genuine improvement in them this season and that puts coach Adam O’Brien right under the pump. The drums are already beating.

Warriors

The Warriors’ problem for as long as I can remember has just been a lax attitude. From the outside, it always seems like a case of ‘she’ll be right’; which it hasn’t been for quite a while. At least those extremely tough times of being stuck away from home are over.

But now, the Warriors need to knuckle down and find some starch. They added some immediately by signing Mitch Barnett, a hard-nosed player. Marata Niukore is another good signing, back at the club after impressing with Parramatta. Dylan Walker has been a rep-calibre player and brings a bit of versatile X-factor. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad softens the blow of losing Reece Walsh as fullback, while Te Maire Martin is a good pick-up in the halves if he stays fit.

Shaun Johnson hasn’t delivered since returning to the club. He just hasn’t. He has not done a thing for them, hasn’t fired a shot. Shaun really needs to turn up for the Warriors this season. Holding it all together is captain Tohu Harris, a great player who sets an example that more guys need to follow.

New coach Andrew Webster has a big task on his hands. The Warriors don’t even have the razzle-dazzle anymore; they were the worst offloading team in the NRL last season. Their style isn’t particularly exciting; it isn’t much of anything and they really need to set some standards for their identity as a club and start delivering. I can’t see them doing much this season but hopefully there’s progress.

Dragons

It’s going to be a long, arduous year for the Dragons. Before a ball has been kicked, they’ve got Francis Molo and Junior Amone in strife with the law. They’ve lost Cody Ramsey, who was going to be their fullback, to serious illness, while Jack de Belin and Jack Bird are already carrying injuries. And now there’s the leak about a little tiff between Zane Musgrove and Mikaele Ravalawa after a pre-season game.

That game, the Charity Shield in Mudgee, actually means something to the club, as far as trial matches go. And you wouldn’t have known it. They just weren’t there for the fight at all. Every way you look at it, it just feels like it’ll be a very challenging year for St George Illawarra.

Jacob Liddle replaces Andrew McCullough at hooker, yet he didn’t produce a single try assist all of last season for Wests Tigers. Tyrell Sloan and Jayden Sullivan are young players still learning their craft, let alone what’s required to take ownership of a team; Moses Mbye might have to fill a spot in the spine. I’m really not doing cartwheels about the key position players they have to put alongside Ben Hunt.

Benny is obviously the key, coming off a great individual season last year. Take Ben out of that team … oh boy. Every NRL season is a test of depth and the Dragons just don’t have it. Their team just looks like a rabble. Even players with solid NRL experience now, the likes of Zac Lomax and Moses Suli, just aren’t doing what they need to do.

I have the Dragons as my wooden spooners, which almost certainly means the end for Anthony Griffin at that club; something I really don’t like saying, given Anthony is a former coach of mine and a good mate. Seriously, Wayne Bennett could coach that team and they’d run close to last.