Fox Sports Lab: What has caused North Queensland Cowboys’ startling early-season implosion

It’s been a quick fall from grace for Todd Payten’s side, who sit in 16th with only the winless Wests Tigers below them. That’s despite a relatively easy draw that includes not playing a single top-eight team from last season across the opening two months.

They’ve also lost their past three matches in a row, a feat they managed to avoid throughout 2022.

While there’s time to turn things around, the Cowboys have only made the finals twice when starting their season with two or fewer wins through the first seven rounds.

What has gone wrong?

If last year’s success was built on doing the fundamentals well, the Cowboys’ early-season struggles have been caused by the opposite.

Firstly, they aren’t scoring anywhere near as many points as they did in 2022. They’ve gone from averaging the third-most points (26.35) in the competition to the third-fewest (17.29).

There needs to be more creativity in attack. North Queensland’s off-the-cuff play, led by Scott Drinkwater and Tom Dearden, is in clear downturn.

The Cowboys average the fewest offloads (5.43) in the NRL and are throwing 16 fewer passes a game in general play. They are also in the bottom four for line breaks (3.57) and tackle busts (23.29).

That lack of scoring efficiency isn’t down to errors, either. The Cowboys have actually improved their completion rate compared to 2022.

Run metres are the most glaring facet that has dropped off this season.

North Queensland averaged the second-most run metres and the most post-contact metres in the NRL last year. Winning the territory battle was the cornerstone of their success.

Through seven rounds this season, the Cowboys are averaging 166 fewer run metres per game, while their post-contact metres have also dropped by more than 10 per cent.

On average, the Cowboys won the net run metres by 209.81m per game in 2022. This season, they’re sitting at -44.43m per game overall.

After losing to the Warriors for the second time this season, Payten lamented his side’s lack of defensive resolve. It was echoed by his captain Chad Townsend: “They showed more desperation on the try line than we did.”

In 2022, the Cowboys had the sixth-best red zone defence in the competition, averaging 11.7 tackles per try conceded. That number has only dropped to 11.2 this season, yet with the standard of NRL defences improving, North Queensland now rank 11th.

The big problem for the Cowboys is that this year’s numbers read similarly to Payten’s first season in charge in 2021, when they finished second-last. They ranked in the bottom half of the competition for most categories and averaged -135 net run metres per game.

Why forwards must step up

Slight individual drop-offs account for the Cowboys falling behind in run metres this year.

Rep stars Jason Taumalolo and Reuben Cotter both had strong 2022 campaigns and while close to last season’s averages, are just off the pace.

Jeremiah Nanai has dropped off considerably after his breakout year, averaging 23 fewer run metres per game. Griffin Neame is almost doubling his minutes this season, causing his tally to rise.

However, two of their best-performing forwards in 2022 were Tom Gilbert and Luciano Leilua. They averaged 204 run metres per game between them last season.

Gilbert is now at the Dolphins, where he is having a career-best year, while Leilua was stood down by the NRL under its no-fault policy after being charged over an alleged domestic violence incident.

The Cowboys have not only been unable to cover the metres they have lost, but remaining players have yet to build on their 2022 success.

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And now they will be without Taumalolo, the one forward averaging more than 110m per game, for up to six weeks because of a knee injury.

The Cowboys do welcome back Jordan McLean this week against the Knights. Yet they face a side that outmuscled the Penrith pack for the majority of their round seven clash and can again call upon Jacob Saifiti, with his suspension over.

If there is a week for North Queensland’s pack to bounce back, however, this is it. No team has conceded more metres this season than the Knights (1516 per game) and a win at home against a side on the rise could be the perfect tonic for Payten’s men.