Fox Sports Lab: Stats you need to know for NRL Round 20, from expert statistician Aaron Wallace

What’s a home ground advantage worth if you can’t win there? Fox Sports Lab guru AARON WALLACE reveals the two clubs who are finding out the hard way.

NRL: Matty Johns and Cooper Cronk discuss the new rules surrounding who is eligible to become an Immortal and name a few of their top picks. Of course Matty has ANOTHER hilarious story about one possible Immortal in particular... and Aaron WallaceFox Sports Lab

4 min read

July 18, 2024 - 6:00AM

CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA - JULY 07: Kaeo Weekes of the Raiders looks dejected following the round 18 NRL match between Canberra Raiders and Newcastle Knights at GIO Stadium on July 07, 2024 in Canberra, Australia. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

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What’s a home ground advantage worth if you can’t win there?

Fox Sports Lab guru AARON WALLACE reveals the two clubs who are finding out the hard way, along with the stats you need to know for round 20.

Run Rabbit, Run

The Rabbitohs’ run for the finals hit a hurdle last week with their loss to the Dolphins, and with a tough draw ahead a win over the struggling Tigers would seem to be non-negotiable if Souths are to stage their season comeback.

Rabbitohs forward Jai Arrow reacts to the loss to the Dolphins. Picture: Getty Images

Four of the Rabbitohs remaining eight games are against the current top four sides, they are the only team which has to run this gauntlet.

Sitting on six wins the Bunnies would likely need to win seven of their eight games and should they make the playoffs they will certainly be in winning form.

Souths have a great recent record against Wests, winning seven of eight since 2020, the past three by an average of 20 points.

Stefano Utoikamanu’s Wests Tigers could ensure the Rabbitohs miss the finals. Picture: Getty Images

Kevin oh Seven?

Brisbane were fifth, just two points behind Penrith in third position, after their Magic Round win over the Sea Eagles.

But six straight losses has dropped them to 13th and in real danger of becoming just the third Grand Finalist in more than a decade to miss the finals in the following season (Eels 2023, Cowboys 2018).

It’s been a tough old run for Blake Mozer and the Broncos, who have lost six straight. Picture: Getty Images

Newcastle is one win ahead of the Broncos but will need to buck a couple of recent trends to stay ahead of them on the ladder.

The Knights have lost four straight games against Brisbane and have lost seven of their past eight games the match after conceding 40 points.

Tyson Frizell and the Knights have lost four straight against the Broncos. Picture: Getty Images

Pressure Cooked Chooks

The Roosters are averaging over 30 points per game for just the second time in their history (1935) but their scoring prowess will come to nothing if they can’t perform against the other teams at the pointy end of the table.

The Roosters are avergaing more than 30 points per game, but have just one win from seven games against the other team in the top eight. Picture: Getty Images

The ‘Tri Colours’ have just one win from seven games this season against the other seven teams currently in the top eight - only Wests Tigers (one win from nine) have a worse record.

A win over Melbourne would certainly provide a confidence boost as the Roosters’ record against Storm and Penrith has been nothing short of abysmal since they won the competition in 2019, with just one win from 19 games - the worst record of any side against the two big guns over that period.

Storm seem to be heading for yet another Minor Premiership, and they will be very confident of a win this weekend based on their recent clashes with the Roosters.

They have won 13 of their past 16 regular season games against them with their three losses by a combined total of just six points.

The Storm are seemingly on track for another minor premiership. Picture: Getty Images

Turning the Tables

Ivan Cleary had an awful coaching record against Wayne Bennett winning just four of his first 18 games against him, but he has certainly turned the table in recent years, winning seven of nine since 2019 including the Panthers only meeting with the Dolphins 24-14 in round 20 last season.

Cleary’s Panthers are all but assured another finals berth this season, but Bennett’s Dolphins are still walking the tightrope despite an improved showing from the same time last season.

One of five teams with nine wins, the Dolphins play the Roosters and Storm in their final seven games.

The Dolphins enjoyed a good win against the Rabbitohs but are still walking the finals tightrope. Picture: Getty Images

Des-perate Times

The Titans finals hopes are still flickering after three straight wins and coach Des Hasler would love nothing more than claiming the fourth on his first match back at Brookvale since his unceremonious exit from the Sea Eagles in 2022.

The Titans haven’t won four straight games since winning their final five games of the shortened 2020 season but they do have an excellent record on the Peninsular, winning six of their eight games there since 2010.

Manly’s Corey Waddell is tackled by Titans defenders when they met earlier this year. Picture: Getty Images

Continuing that record would certainly be an upset however as Manly has won six of seven at Brookvale this season.

Trouble on the home front

Canberra’s finals hopes have taken a dive with just one win from their past six games and if they can’t stop the rot at home the Green Machine’s season will continue to spiral out of control.

The Raiders have not won in Canberra since a golden point win over the Titans in round 6, losing their four most recent games - they have not lost five straight in the Capital since Ricky Stuart’s first season at the helm in 2014.

Albert Hopoate and his Raiders simply can’t win at home - where they have now lost four in a row. Picture: Getty Images

The Warriors continue to find injury woes with Captain Tohu Harris ruled out for the season but can take some confidence from their solid recent record over the Raiders, winning their past three and five of their past seven games.

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The Cowboys have won five of their past seven games, but like the Raiders if they are serious about playing finals in 2024, they too need to start winning at home.

The Cowboys have won just three of seven games at their Townsville home ground this season. Picture: Getty Images

North Queensland has won just three of seven games in Townsville this season, the equal fewest home wins of any team, including just one win (against last placed Wests Tigers) from their past five games.

Their opponents Canterbury need to string together some wins on the road if they are any chance of snaring a top four spot - the Bulldogs have won all eight of their designated home games in 2024, but just one from eight as the away team. Since 2020, Canterbury has won just four of 30 games outside of NSW.