Fox Sports Lab: Stats you need to know for NRL Round 21, from expert statistician Aaron Wallace

Fox Sports Lab guru AARON WALLACE takes us behind the numbers to reveal which teams are in the firing line, along with the best stats you didn’t know you needed to know.

Last Chance Saloon

With the average wins of eighth position sitting at just over 12 in the NRL era it’s safe to assume 12 or 13 wins will be required to be featuring in finals this season, meaning several teams are approaching the murky realm of “mathematical possibilities”.

The Titans are the worst of these, sitting on six wins and possibly requiring a perfect seven from seven to close out the season and sneak into the play-offs, meaning their all-Queensland clash with the Dolphins is a must win.

The bad news for Des Hasler and his men is the Dolphins have won all three games against the Gold Coast, Hasler has lost six straight and eight of his past 10 games against Bennett, and the Titans as a whole have lost 14 of their past 15 games against the supercoach.

The Rabbitohs are next in the firing line of red pen territory on seven wins, with a loss this week to Canberra a possibility of dropping them to 15th position and three wins out of the eight with just six games to play.

The Rabbitohs have an unhappy recent record against the Raiders, with just one from their past five starts and just three from 11 wins over the past decade - their worst record against any team over that period besides Melbourne (3 from 16).

The Warriors have seven wins and a draw, and simply must defeat the last placed Wests Tigers, especially from a confidence point of view if they are to make the finals in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2010-11.

The good news for the “Wahs” is they have a great recent record against Wests, winning six straight, their longest run against an opponent since winning eight straight against the Titans between 2011 and 2014.

They have not lost to the Tigers in New Zealand since 2016.

The Curse of First

Melbourne is seemingly cruising to what would be a sixth minor premiership in the 14 years following their 2010 salary cap scandal but claiming first position has not proven as fruitful as it might for Craig Bellamy’s men.

From their five previous top placed finishes over that period, they have won the competition only once (2017) and have missed the Grand Final on three occasions (2011, 2019, 2021).

CHARGE!

The return of Adam Reynolds last week helped to snap the Broncos six game losing streak, and a win over the sixth placed Bulldogs could sound a warning to the rest of the competition the Broncos are not done with for 2024.

Brisbane has won five straight games against the Bulldogs, and 10 of their past 11 against them at Suncorp Stadium.

Canterbury are not the easy beats of the past few seasons however, with only one defeat by more than six points since round 2.

Their struggles on the road are real however, winning just one of nine as the away team this season, and just three from their past 25 games in Queensland.

They have lost 13 straight games against all opponents at Suncorp.

Cowboys in need of a bigger boat?

Cronulla heads to North Queensland for a clash which may prove crucial to the top four chances of both teams, and Craig Fitzgibbon’s men will certainly be full of confidence.

The Sharks have won their past three games against the Cowboys by an average margin of just over 31 points, including a 42-6 hammering in round 7; the Cowboys’ biggest loss this season.

Stretching further back, Cronulla has won 15 of the past 18 meetings between the two teams - two of their three losses have come in extra time in finals clashes.

North Queensland’s form has certainly improved since their five straight losses between round 6 and 10, with six wins from their eight games since.

Their recent run of games should certainly have them prepared for September should they qualify, this match is their fifth from their past seven games against a team currently sitting in the top six on the ladder - they have won three of the previous four, with their only loss in golden point to the Sea Eagles in round 18.

Chicken?

The Roosters woes against the current top eight sides continued last week with their biggest loss of the season against Storm.

Sydney has won just one of its eight games against the other seven teams currently in finals positions, including none from four against the other top five teams.

The “Tri Colours” have struggled historically against Manly, their 51 wins from 141 games against them is their worst against any opponent, but they have a good recent record against them at home, winning their past four in the Moore Park vicinity - they have not won five straight against them there since 1977.

Wipe out!

St George Illawarra is looking to become just the second team since 2020 to defeat Penrith in both regular season games (Eels 2022) after their 22-10 win at Penrith in round 13 and will be hoping their sustained run of success in Wollongong against the Panthers can pick up where it left off almost 10 years ago.

Penrith has won just two of nine games against the Dragons at WIN Stadium, and stretching back against the Steelers those two wins are their only victories there since 1991.

The Panthers have not scored more than 18 points there since 2003.

Another win for the Dragons this time around would also extend coach Shane Flanagan’s winning streak against Penrith to eight games - his 77 per cent win record against the Panthers is his best against any team.

Penrith will be hoping Nathan Cleary’s return helps Jarome Luai to avoid surfing flashbacks from his Origin Camp mishap when he hears the waves breaking just outside the ground.

It’s the first time since round 10 the Panthers have fielded their preferred starting halves - the pair have won almost 88 per cent of their games together since 2020.