Fox Sports Lab: Stats you need to know for NRL Round 24, from expert statistician Aaron Wallace

Round 24

Top spot goes on the line with Penrith gunning for a fourth minor Premiership in five years, while Storm will all but secure a fifth JJ Giltinan shield from the past decade should they emerge victorious.

Penrith is the only team with a winning record against Storm over the past five seasons, with seven wins from 11 meetings, but this is the Panthers second worst record against any team over this period (8 from 13 v Eels).

Storm won 8-0 when these sides clashed in round 1 and have thrived in top of the table clashes, where other teams have faulted.

When first has played second after the midpoint of the season in the NRL Era (since 1998), the top placed team has only come away with victory six times from 19 matches … Storm however have won four of the past six occasions when sitting on top, and five from nine overall.

They won the most recent late season first v second clash 37-10 against the Panthers in round 20, 2021.

Good Omens?

Manly has been pouring on the points over the past few weeks, scoring at least 30 points in each of its past four games.

The Sea Eagles have cracked the 30 mark five or more times consecutively just twice in their history, with seven games in 1983 and five in 2013 … they lost the Grand Final in both seasons.

“Phins, Up!”

The Bulldogs have won all nine of their designated home matches this season, a fact that has them well in the hunt for a top four berth, but Bundaberg is a long way from Belmore (Just over 1000 km as the crow flies for those who are interested).

This season Canterbury has won just one of four games outside of NSW, but that was a 41-16 thumping of the Broncos just a few weeks ago.

The Dolphins will certainly be glad to be travelling up north and not down south as their battle for a top eight berth intensifies.

Wayne Bennett’s men have won 16 of their 30 games played in Queensland, including four from five away from Suncorp Stadium this season - outside the Sunshine State they have won just three of 14 games.

Several teams outside of the top eight will no doubt be cheering on the Bulldogs in this clash, especially the Rabbitohs - their very slim finals hopes will be extinguished should the Dolphins win.

Inhospitable Hosts

A top four berth has not yet been secured by the Roosters, so they will be looking to continue their inhospitable home record against the Eels.

Sydney has won nine straight games as the home team against Parramatta, with their last loss coming in 2008.

The Roosters’ form against teams at the top end of the table has been inconsistent at best this season, but they have been ruthless against the teams currently sitting outside of a finals berth, winning all 10 games - the only team with a perfect record.

Pistols trump swords?

North Queensland is also still in the hunt for a top four position, despite their poor performance against the Broncos last week, but their poor differential makes their final three games all must win.

The Cowboys have a great recent record against the Raiders winning five straight games, including a 34-16 victory in Canberra in round 15

The Raiders were overrun by Manly in the second half last week to concede 46 points, their second worst tally this season.

One small piece of good news is they have bounced back well in the past few seasons after leaking 40 points, winning seven of eight since 2021.

Double (Figure) Dragon

The Dragons continued their season trend of big losses or (mostly) big wins with their 18-point loss to the Bulldogs last weekend, taking their tally to 10 double figure losses, with none by single digits.

Only three teams since the 1930s have not lost a match in a season by single figures, and one of those (St George in 1956) was undefeated.

The Northern Eagles lost 14 games in 2002, all by 10 points or more and Balmain in 1996 had 11 losses all by double figures.

The Dragons would no doubt like to join that list by winning their remaining four games and qualifying for the finals, and playing the Titans in Wollongong could prove a good starting point; Gold Coast teams (in all forms) have lost 11 straight games in Wollongong, with their last win coming against the Steelers in 1989.

St George Illawarra has won all five games there against the Titans.

Wollongong is also Titan’s coach Des Hasler’s second least favourite venue, with just one win from six trips there as a coach - his only worse venue being Kogarah (1 from 7).

The Knight isn’t over

Newcastle is still firmly in the race for a finals berth despite winning just three of their past nine matches.

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With three winnable games remaining after this week, toppling the Sharks would be a giant step in the right direction, however games against the top sides have proven tough for the Knights in 2024 - they have won just two of 10 games against team currently inside the top 8, with only the Rabbitohs and Tigers having worse records.

Cronulla meanwhile needs to keep winning to stave off the chasers and secure an all-important top four spot.

The Sharks have won five straight against the Knights in Cronulla and have won all three day games they have played this season.