Fox Sports Lab: The key 20 minutes for teams heading into NRL finals

Each of the nine sides still in finals contention, including the Broncos who require a minor miracle, has a specific 20-minute period where their attack or defence could dictate whether they come away with a victory.

The crucial quarter

Penrith Panthers – Q3

Penrith has the best defensive record in the competition and sits second in terms of points scored, so it’s no surprise they claimed the minor premiership.

But it’s the 20 minutes after half-time where they have asserted their dominance this year.

They have only conceded 42 points in that period all season, the equal best in the NRL. Only five times this year have the Panthers even conceded points between the 40th and 60th minutes.

They have in turn been able to capitalise on that defensive pressure in attack. In the third quarter, they have scored four points or fewer only eight times. That includes each of their three losses.

Cronulla Sharks – Q2

The Sharks have the second-best defensive record in the NRL and Craig Fitzgibbon has worked wonders in evolving the team’s mentality this year to have them well positioned for a shot at this year’s title.

Many of their victories have been established in the period before half time.

The Sharks have held teams scoreless in the 20 minutes before half-time on 12 occasions this year. Each time, they have gone on to win the game.

When they’ve gone into the sheds having conceded eight points or more in that period, they have lost five of six matches.

North Queensland Cowboys – Q3

Like the Panthers, the Cowboys’ second-half defensive record has been impressive.

They have the best net points (218) of any team in the second-half of matches and a lot of that work is set up in the third quarter.

The Cowboys have only conceded 42 points in that period. It’s the same amount as Penrith and a record that is nearly half the next best team in the competition.

They have also never conceded more than one try between the 40th and 60th minutes.

Melbourne Storm – Q4

The Storm have taken time to hit their strides this season and it’s been a similar story across the 80 minutes.

Melbourne’s difference in net points between the first (64) and second-halves (194) of games is three times greater in the final 40 minutes.

The 82 points they have conceded in the final quarter of matches is the best defensive record in the competition, while their net fourth-quarter points (122) also lead the NRL.

Parramatta Eels – Q1

Consistency remains a big issue for the Eels but 95 points in the past two weeks will surely allay concerns they don’t have big scores in them.

Their wins over the Bulldogs and Broncos emphasised how important it has been for Parramatta to start fast. On the seven occasions they have scored 12 points or more in the opening 20 minutes, they have gone on to win each time.

And every time the Eels hold a lead after the first quarter, they have also gone on to win.

It has, however, been a period of concern when they have lost. Parramatta has conceded 10 points or more in the opening 20 minutes of a match five times this year. They lost each of those games.

Sydney Roosters – Q1

Similar to the Eels, it has been the first 20 minutes of matches that have generally dictated the result for the Roosters. On the seven occasions they have led by six points or more after the first quarter of a match, they have gone on to win each time.

Across all their losses in 2022, only once were they leading at the 20-minute mark, against the Storm at home in round 14.

The Roosters also have the second-best defensive record in the competition through the first quarter of matches, conceding just 78 points. Only the Sharks (70) have a better record in that period.

South Sydney Rabbitohs – Q2

South Sydney’s free-flowing attack is a handful but teams that have kept them quiet just before half-time have had the most success against them this season.

Every time they have failed to score between the 20th minute and half-time, they have proceeded to lose the match. It accounts for six of their nine losses in 2022.

They have also conceded 10 points or more in that same period on four occasions, going on to lose each time.

Canberra Raiders – Q4

Earlier in the year, Fox Lab analysed the woes the Raiders faced in closing games out. No team had lost more games from winning positions.

And while they have turned things around slightly, there remains a trend that shows the last 20 minutes of matches are pivotal for the Green Machine.

Canberra has failed to score after the 60th minute in 10 matches this season. Only once have they still gone on to win – against the Dragons in round 22.

The Raiders have the worst second-half net points tally (-42) of any of the finals-bound teams. They are also the only team in the top eight to have a negative points differential in both the third and fourth quarters of matches, -24 and -18 respectively.

Brisbane Broncos – Q1

The past two weeks have been shambolic for the Broncos, and they find themselves on the verge of unwanted history as they look set to be bundled out of the finals.

They were heavily outscored by both the Storm (30 points) and Eels (22 points) in the second half of each of their matches. In total, they have been outscored in the second half on 10 occasions this year. They have lost every time.

Yet when they outscore their opponents in the same period they have always managed to win. They haven’t done that for the last five weeks, coinciding with them crashing out of the top eight.

But it is the first quarter that has set the tone for many of Brisbane’s matches.

The Broncos have only scored 72 points before the 20-minute mark of games this year. All of their finals’ rivals scored at least 40 points more in that time.

They have also conceded 120 points in that same period. The Rabbitohs (122) are the only top-eight side who have let in more.