NRL finals spots are up for grabs - and these are the players each contending club is depending on

Which players will be the difference-makers for their respective teams in the run home?

Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers – and some of the names might surprise.

James Fisher-Harris (Penrith Panthers)

In a team full of representative stars, Fisher-Harris is the barometer for when the Panthers are playing well.

One of Penrith’s most consistent players, the damaging prop has produced another brilliant season in 2022. With 14.9 runs a game, he averages 128 run metres and 45 post-contact metres.

The one match the Panthers lost this season – against Parramatta in Round 9 – was the only time Fisher-Harris has had less than 90 run metres this season (excluding an injury-interrupted match against the Dragons in Round 2).

The Eels kept a lid on his output and it went a long way to their victory. Since that match, Fisher-Harris has averaged 142 metres a game. He’s not backing down from the challenge of leading Penrith back-to-back.

Peta Hiku (North Queensland Cowboys)

The Cowboys are firming for a top-four finish, something no one expected at the start of the season. While the likes of Valentine Holmes, Jeremiah Nanai and Jason Taumalolo have all gone above and beyond this year, a less-celebrated player has quietly put together one of his best seasons in the NRL.

Hiku is in his ninth year in the top flight and his first at the Cowboys, but he has thrived in Townsville.

Hiku’s 2,264 run metres are the second most of any starting centre in the competition (behind St. George Illawarra’s Moses Suli). Only Taumalolo averages more run metres a game among his Cowboys teammates.

He also has been willing to do the hard yards, averaging nine one-pass hit-ups per game, the most of any Cowboy. Match that with his offloads and attacking output and Hiku is vital if they can continue their impressive run to the finals.

Will Kennedy (Cronulla Sharks)

The Sharks have been one of the big movers in 2022 under new coach Craig Fitzgibbon. Consecutive wins against top-four rivals has them well placed for a double chance come finals time.

Nicho Hynes has been brilliant in his first season in the Shire while Cronulla’s outside backs have provided a great platform for their success. But fullback Kennedy could yet figure as their most crucial player.

Kennedy leads the competition in line break assists with 26, already a record for him in a season. He also has 13 try assists, the equal most for the Sharks along with Hynes.

His ability to put Siosifa Talakai and Jesse Ramien into space has been vital in a free-flowing Cronulla attack.

Justin Olam (Melbourne Storm)

The Papua New Guinea international has been fantastic again for the Storm. One of only two players to play every game, Olam has been at his damaging best.

With 116 run metres per game, Olam leads the way for all his Melbourne teammates. He also leads the Storm for tackle busts with 65. Add in seven tries and nine line breaks and Olam continues to be a crucial attacking weapon for Melbourne.

Surprisingly, those figures come from only 12.9 runs a game, down on some of the other high-profile centres in the competition. With Ryan Papenhuyzen out for the season, look for Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes to find their bulldozing centre more regularly as they look to secure their top-four finish.

Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)

Fresh from winning player of the series in this year’s Origin, Carrigan returns to the Broncos as they look to complete their resurgence with a place in the finals.

Carrigan has already shown his ability to step up for Brisbane this year. In previous years, it has been left to Payne Haas to carry the workload but Carrigan, among others, has helped ease his burden.

The middle forward has been a workhorse for the Broncos. With 28.8 tackles a game, Carrigan adds 128 run metres and 48 post-contact metres a game. He also sees a lot more of the ball with 23.7 possessions a game, the most of any Brisbane forward.

With Haas returning this week, Carrigan will be crucial in balancing his workload and making sure Brisbane’s first-choice pack can continue to get on top of the opposition.

Isaiah Papali’i (Parramatta Eels)

Papali’i has taken his game to new levels again for the Eels. After joining Parramatta at the start of 2021, Papali’i has become one of the most damaging edge forwards in the competition with an impressive workload in attack and defence.

With eight tries, Papali’i is only behind Nanai and Manly’s Haumole Olakau’atu for the most by a forward this season. He busts the second most tackles (57) in the competition of any forward (also behind Olakau’atu). And he has the fourth-most tackles of any non-hooker forward in the NRL with 547.

The Eels‘ forward pack has been impressive with Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard having a big impact. But there’s no doubting that Papali’i is the key man if Parramatta can finally end their premiership drought.

Tom Burgess (South Sydney Rabbitohs)

In a team full of attacking stars, Burgess may seem like an unusual choice as South Sydney’s “difference maker” heading into the finals. However, his numbers support how vital he has been to the Rabbitohs’ charge this season.

Burgess is in his 10th NRL season and still registers 128 run metres a game, leading the way in the Rabbitohs‘ forward pack. He also records 56 post-contact metres a game.

Souths have won seven of their last 10 matches. Burgess didn’t play in their round nine loss to the Broncos and in defeats to the Raiders and Dragons, he registered his two lowest run outputs.

In his last six performances, however, Burgess has averaged 160 run metres a game. If he can continue that trend, it will help South Sydney no end in their quest for a finals berth.

Kieran Foran (Manly Sea Eagles)

Confident his body won’t let him down again, Foran has been crucial and consistent for Manly all season long.

The steady hand that allows others around him to thrive, Foran has the most try involvements for any Manly player this season with 23, ahead of Reuben Garrick (21) and Daly Cherry-Evans (19).

He has also been far more efficient than his halves partner with a try involvement coming every 32 possessions as opposed to Cherry-Evans’ 47. Additionally, Foran leads Manly in line break assists (16) and line engagements (188).

Cherry-Evans has returned to the Sea Eagles full of confidence after his Origin triumph, but it’s his trusty partner in the No.6 who could be most crucial to Manly’s finals run.

Sam Walker (Sydney Roosters)

After a breakthrough rookie season, expectations were high for Walker in 2022.

In a Roosters side struggling for consistency, his attacking stats are down. But Walker has been willing to run the ball more in his second year. He is running the ball 5.1 times a game in 2022 (up from 3.8) and is averaging 45 run metres a game (up from 31 metres).

In the last three rounds without Luke Keary, Walker has shown what he can achieve leading the team on his own. He has taken on more of the kicking responsibility with 250+ metres in each match and has had more freedom to play across the park rather than on the left where he has predominantly played.

When Walker has taken control it has created space for the likes of Joey Manu and James Tedesco to show their attacking flair. If Keary can return and play that second-fiddle to Walker, it will help the Roosters’ chances of advancing their finals run.

Joseph Tapine (Canberra Raiders)

Tapine has emerged as the best prop in the game in 2022.

Tapine’s 2,540 run metres this year is third in the competition behind only Dylan Edwards (3,232 metres) and James Tedesco (2,858 metres). He has run for nearly 800 metres more than any other Raiders player.

His 1,050 post-contact metres are also the most of any player in the NRL and his 481 tackles on the year place him behind only Tom Starling (484) among his teammates.

The Raiders struggled with their bench rotation early in the season, particularly how they used Tapine and Josh Papali’i. But with six wins from their last nine matches, that balance is improving with Tapine taking on more responsibility.

Through the first eight rounds, Tapine was averaging 48.5 minutes on the field. Across the last seven weeks, he has averaged 56.7 minutes. If they’re to make a last-ditch run to finals, it’s going to be on the back of Tapine’s best season to date.

Jaydn Su’A (St. George-Illawarra Dragons)

The Dragons have been a difficult side to read in 2022. And while finals appear unlikely, a string of wins could yet put them in contention.

Suli has been their standout player besides Ben Hunt with the centre leading the competition for run metres by starting centres (2,272 metres).

But with Suli likely to miss the Dragons’ run to the finals, other players will have to step up in his absence. The man most likely to do that is Su’A.

Su’A is the only Dragons forward to average over 100 running metres a game in 2022 (102 metres). He has also busted 30 tackles, second only to Jack Bird (35) who has played five more matches. His four tries are the equal most by a Dragons forward, while he has also registered three linebreaks and seven offloads.

Despite several on-field indiscretions, there’s no doubting the impact Su’A can have when he stays on the park. If the Dragons are to make the finals, they need Su’A to step up and match it with some of the NRL’s most damaging edge forwards.