Fox Sports Lab: The case for and against NSW State of Origin bolter Bradman Best

The man who was desperately unlucky not to also get a Blues debut this season, Campbell Graham.

Best’s maiden selection for Origin III came as a surprise, with the 103kg Newcastle Knights powerhouse having been slow to reach his massive potential due to injury and application.

So is he genuinely an Origin-calibre player now, having once lit up the arena for the Junior Blues?

Here’s what Fox Sports Lab data says.

How is he going?

Best’s 19 try involvements, coming at a career-best 1.2 per game, trail only Rabbitohs rival Graham (21) among centres in 2023; their try tallies are eight and 14 respectively.

His six try assists and five secondary try assists are bettered only by Cronulla’s recent NSW player Siosifa Talakai (seven and seven).

On average, Best impacts the scoreboard every game. Yet in reality, he’s far less consistent.

Best had scored one try from the first nine rounds this season, and had two try assists (in the same match) from his first 10 games. He has not had a secondary try assist in the past eight games.

His three tries, two try assists and two line breaks in his last match, a 66-0 annihilation of Canterbury, make up a significant chunk of his output across 16 games this season. It was suggested, though firmly rebuffed by the Blues, that he was picked on the strength of one good performance.

Best, by the numbers, has also been streaky defensively.

Across the first eight rounds of this season, he was letting in one try per game. He let in five across rounds five and six, against Manly and the Warriors respectively.

He is missing 2.2 tackles per game, which is more than when he first entered the NRL as a teenager.

Has he improved?

There are a number of categories in which Best has improved significantly from the past couple of seasons, yet hasn’t improved on his initial foray into the NRL.

His run metres per game (130) are way up from the past two seasons (99 in 2022, 114 in 2021), yet still trail his first extended season in the NRL; he averaged 141 metres per game in 2020.

Comparing 2020 and 2023, he is averaging slightly fewer tries (0.7 to 0.5), runs (14.9 to 13.4), post-contact metres (54 to 42), tackle busts (2.8 to 2.3) and line breaks (0.5 to 0.4) per game.

He has recorded slight lifts in his output for offloads (0.5 to 0.9) and tackles (12.2 to 12.8) per game.

One massive improvement for Best: his consistency in simply being on the field.

Nearing his 22nd birthday, he is currently on his longest streak of consecutive NRL games (16), having played every match for Newcastle this year. Barring disaster, he will easily surpass his current highest games tally for an NRL season (17 in 2021).

Best has had a number of injury setbacks, including a dislocated left elbow last season. He has also had to gain maturity, having been stood down for missing the team bus to a round 21 game against the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium last year.

“I was disappointed last year in how I performed,” Best said after his Origin selection.

“I trained really hard in the off-season and made sure I had a really good pre-season and carried that right up to this day. I’ve just been looking after myself, mentally and physically, and making sure my body is right.”

Best v Holmes?

Best will play his usual left centre position in his Origin debut, with Stephen Crichton moved to the right edge. The young Blue will be up against Queensland star Val Holmes, who is third on Origin’s all-time tryscoring list with 13; trailing only Greg Inglis (18) and Darius Boyd (17), after scoring a pair in Origin II.

Best will need to have one of his better nights in defence, clearly. And he will need to lift to outdo Holmes on the attacking front.

Holmes has produced 153 run metres per game on average this season, compared to Best’s 130m. The Maroons ace is also cracking the opposition defence more than twice as often, with 12 line breaks to six from one fewer appearance. Best has an edge in offloading capacity, with 14 this season compared to just three for Holmes.

Intriguingly, Holmes has been far more error-prone, making 25 to Best’s 14 and conceding four penalties to just one. Best is making nearly twice as many tackles per game (12.8 to 6.9).

Holmes is a high-stakes match-up, so will Best rise to the occasion?

He has as a Junior Blue, of course, in spectacular fashion.

And with his body now co-operating, he gets the chance to show what he’s got and potentially silence some doubters.