Everything you need to know ahead of the Australian men’s Paris Olympic swim trials

With the Olympic trials set to be swum at Brisbane from June 10-15, CODE Sports has cast their eyes over every swimmer to deliver a comprehensive form guide detailing all 28 individual events in the pool.

Here we go through all 14 men’s races as world champions like Kyle Chalmers, Cameron McEvoy and Sam Short fight emerging talents and rising teenagers for tickets on the plane to Paris.

The selection criteria for most events is simple: finish in the top two and faster than Australia’s own qualifying time (QT) and you are off to the Olympic Games.

World champion Cameron McEvoy is gunning for his fourth Olympic Games and, barring any major mistakes, should win this race. McEvoy has redefined how to train for sprint freestyle and after going to the Rio Olympics as the man to beat in the 100m freestyle but finishing seventh behind Kyle Chalmers, it would be a popular win if he was to win Paris gold in this second stage of his career.

After McEvoy though, the race will be fierce.

Isaac Cooper delivered last year and after placing fourth at the world titles you would think he is in the box seat to get the second spot for Paris. But, Cooper was fifth at the Open Nationals with Kyle Chalmers, Thomas Nowakowski and Ben Armbruster all sneaking in ahead of him. Chalmers is entered but don’t expect him to race the 50m in Paris if he qualifies, his program will be too busy with the 100m and multiple relays.

Nowakowski is a huge threat while the likes of Bell, Armbruster, Jack and Yang will be hunting the first sub 22-second swims of their careers.

In a race where even the slightest error or extra breath can be the difference in success or failure this field is wide open.

PREDICTION: Cameron McEvoy, Isaac Cooper

Hold your breath, this one is gonna be a heart-stopper.

With Australia likely to take the top six athletes to Paris for the 4x100m freestyle relay, there is much at stake not just the top two spots for individual Olympic berths. And this is where it gets interesting - everybody wants to be part of this relay as the 2023 world champions and Olympic favourites.

Out the front, it will be hard for anyone to beat Kyle Chalmers. The 2016 Olympic champion is about a body-length quicker than anyone else in this race and he should be too strong here again. For his own confidence, he would want a low 47s swim to send a warning shot to his Paris rivals that he is a gold medal contender at the Games.

After Chalmers, the battle will be fierce. Southam showed class last year to win the spot for the world titles and with another year under his belt don’t discount him dropping more time as he is only 18-years-old. Southam was fifth at nationals, but says he always struggles to post fast 100m times when in full work and has taken confidence from a PB in the 200m freestyle.

If Cartwright is on, he could be a legitimate threat. His seeding time is 48.21s, but his 47.84s relay lead off set up the gold medal win in Fukuoka, so if he can lift with an individual Olympic berth on the line you could see two men pushing Chalmers all the way.

After them, the battle will be intense. Kai Taylor split 47.91s in the relay final in Fukuoka so he will be gunning to break the 48s barrier for the first time off the gun while William Yang was the big performer at the national titles and then there will be the likes of Zac Incerti, Matthew Temple and Max Giuliani pushing to drop into the 47s territory.

But the two big stories could be 21-year-old Jamie Jack and 27-year-old Cody Simpson.

Jack is the younger brother of women’s star sprinter Shayna Jack and if his fourth place at Open Nationals can be replicated here, the siblings could be off to their first Olympics together.

Simpson is the headline act of the meet as music fans worldwide tune in to see if the popular musician can achieve his incredible Olympic dream just five years after returning to swimming. Simpson had set his eyes on the 100m butterfly, but with six relay spots on the Olympic team up for grabs he has hedged his bets with a crack at the 100m freestyle. It will take a personal best time from Simpson to make this relay team - but six chances are better than two in the butterfly so it all may come down to this one event.

PREDICTION: Kyle Chalmers, Flynn Southam, William Yang, Jack Cartwright, Kai Taylor, Jamie Jack.

Quite simply, this is the hardest men’s race of the Olympic trials to pick a winner.

On paper, Giuliani looks like the one to beat boasting some red-hot times at the end of last year. But, he was fifth at the Open Nationals and never really eyeballed the leaders in a race won by Flynn Southam in a personal best time. So there must be some question marks over his ability to replicate those sort of swims now the spotlight is on him and especially at the Olympic trials where the pressure will be all encompassing.

Giuliani is one of just three Australians all-time to break 1:45, the other two being Ian Thorpe in 2001 and Clyde Lewis five years ago, so even if he falters badly he should still be thereabouts fighting for a spot on the team.

Australia can, and probably will, take the top six placegetters to Paris for the 4x200m freestyle relay team.

Alexander Graham swum 1:45.22 at the last Olympic trials so is actually next quickest on the all-time list, while Kyle Chalmers (1:45.48) is the next best of the current generation although he is not entered here and unlikely to be a relay option in Paris given his sprint workload and focus on the 100m gold medal.

Elijah Winnington, Thomas Neill and Kai Taylor followed Southam home at the Open Nationals but this is genuinely a race where it could be won from any lane and race tactics will play a big role to see if someone can go out the hardest and hold on for dear life.

PREDICTION: Elijah Winnington, Kai Taylor, Flynn Southam, Max Giuliani, Thomas Neil, Zac Incerti

Not since Ian Thorpe and Grant Hackett waged an epic Olympic battle 20 years ago has Australia been so blessed for 400m talent. And that’s even after 2016 Olympic champion Mack Horton retired last year.

Australia has two world champions in this race with 2023 gold medallist Short the favourite ahead of 2022 world champion Winnington.

Winnington, 24, swam 3:41.22 to win that world title two years ago and after some encouraging swims at the Open Nationals, there are signs he is getting back to his best under coach Dean Boxall.

Short, the 19-year-old from the Sunshine Coast, looks a supreme talent and there are some who wouldn’t be surprised if he wins a treble of medals in Paris in the 400m-800m-1500m. He would probably trade them all for one gold medal - and this is the event he stands the best chance.

It would be an almighty shock if anyone challenges Short or Winnington for one of the two spots on the Olympic team.

PREDICTION: Sam Short, Elijah Winnington

This is another two-horse race, but if it’s anything like the Open nationals, it will be a belter. Winnington took the honours on the Gold Coast with a flying final 100m, but Short has gone much quicker than the 7:43s they both dropped in April. Short will be aiming to be much closer to his Australian record but with the Olympic Games only a few weeks away, he probably won’t be fully rested and tapered here so the best should still be to come in Paris. Whatever happens, it’s hard to envisage anyone other than Short or Winnington getting the QT in this race.

PREDICTION: Sam Short, Elijah Winnington

This has been the heartbreak race in recent times, with Sam Short cruelly denied a Tokyo Olympic berth after he missed the QT. Short, to his credit, turned the disappointment into motivation to become a world champion and a legitimate three medal threat for the Paris Games.

This, however, is his weaker event - if you can say that. He should win this race in a canter and there could be a time, either here at the trials or at the Olympics, where he gives Grant Hackett’s Australian record a nudge. He’ll need to if he wants to reach a Paris podium.

So the real focus here will be on Sydney’s Matthew Galea who broke through the 15-minute barrier last year in the US but needs to drop another three seconds to make the team here. Imagine the devastation if he finishes second but misses the QT. It is one of the most absurd policies in swimming that Australia applies such a brutal time standard for an Olympic Games - denying hard-working kids their dreams when they’ve reached the Olympic threshold but our own country applies a tougher policy that only athletes worthy of reaching world standard finals get a start.

Here’s hoping whoever finishes second is under the 14:54.29 cut off time.

Nic Sloman has already qualified for Paris in Open Water swimming, while 19-year-old Goedemans from the elite St Peters Western squad in Brisbane could make some sharp time drops here at the trials after a silver medal at the Open nationals. Goedemans has not entered the 800m freestyle so has clearly identified his best shot at Paris is an all-or-nothing attack on this race and the 20 seconds improvement required to reach the QT.

PREDICTION: Sam Short, Matthew Galea

This remains one of Australia’s weaker events, with no swimmer having gone under the tough qualifying time in the past two years. But that won’t be an issue with Paris selection, as coaches simply must pick the best backstroker regardless of the winning time here to give Australia any hope in the medley relay.

Whether they pick two athletes from the 100m results remains uncertain and may well be determined by how many swimmers qualify for the 200m individual. Coaches cannot risk an illness in Paris with only one backstroker on the team.

So this will be a case of getting your hand on the wall first to secure a ticket to Paris.

In that respect, Woodward is favourite after reaching the semi-finals at the world titles last year. The question will be whether Isaac Cooper has done enough work on his backstroke after such a massive 50m freestyle breakthrough last year where he finished fourth at the world titles.

An Olympic 50m freestyle medal is a lot more enticing than a backstroke semi-final - although a medley relay medal should be enough incentive for any racer.

Cooper didn’t race the 100m backstroke at Open nationals so we don’t know how sharp his backstroke is coming into the trials.

Enoch Robb and Joshua Edwards-Smith could emerge as the guys fighting for that second spot and possible selection.

The other question mark is former world champion Mitch Larkin whose name has not appeared on the early race lists, but is edging back to full speed after serious shoulder surgery.

However, Larkin admits his better hope is in the 200m as he’s yet to fully regain his full explosive power in the wake of his major surgery.

PREDICTION: Bradley Woodward, Joshua Edwards-Smith

This one is shaping as another two-horse battle out the front with 25-year-old Woodward and 21-year-old Griffith University backstroker Edwards-Smith, who trains alongside women’s backstroke superstar Kaylee McKeown. McKeown is the greatest female backstroker the world has ever seen, so it stands to reason anyone working in her program should be able to come through with strong times. If there’s one thing we know about his coach Michael Bohl, it’s that he knows how to get his swimmers peaking at just the right time.

The other big story in this race will be the return of former world champion Mitch Larkin. He had major shoulder surgery after the 2022 Commonwealth Games and was told he would never swim again. Larkin, 30, has defied everyone to get back to race fitness and if he gets anywhere near qualifying for his fourth Olympic Games it would be one of the most remarkable stories of the Olympic trials.

PREDICTION: Joshua Edwards-Smith, Bradley Woodward

World 50m champion Williamson is Australia’s big hope here because this race has been a real weakness on the international stage for some time.

Williamson has gone under the QT three times since the start of last year, including a 59.21s, and ideally Australia would love to see him dip below 59s to boost the medley relay in Paris.

The race for silver will be intriguing, with Stubblety-Cook looking the challenger based on previous performances. Buckingham, 19, almost broke the 60-second barrier at the Japan Open last November and you’d think he can do much better than his ninth place finish from the Open nationals.

Yong, 22, from WA is the one who has shown the most improvement in recent times and if he can match the early speed of the sprinters, he might be thereabouts in the final 10m. This could also be an event that proves brutal at the selection table - if the second swimmer doesn’t post the QT could selectors ignore them for Paris and put faith in the 200m qualifiers to be medley relay back-ups at the Olympic Games?

PREDICTION: Sam Williamson, Joshua Yong

Olympic champion Stubblety-Cook has dominated this event on the domestic scene for a number of years now but he would’ve got a shock at the Open nationals at the emergence of 22-year-old Yong who has moved ahead in leaps and bounds since moving to Western Australia. Yong’s time of 2:08.54 on the Gold Coast would’ve been enough to qualify for the Olympic team, so he will be hoping to repeat and better that effort to book his ticket to Paris. The smoky in the field could be Matthew Wilson - he’s a former world record holder in this event and although he faded to finish sixth at the nationals you can’t write off what he could produce with a full taper.

PREDICTION: Zac Stubblety-Cook, Joshua Yong

This will be one of the most watched events of the trials, as musician Cody Simpson tries to complete a remarkable journey onto an Australian Olympic team. And this race will go down to the wire.

Out in front Temple will be very tough to beat. He is consistently hitting times much sharper than his rivals and remains the only man in the field to go sub 51 seconds. At his best, Temple could be a contender for an Olympic medal in Paris.

Behind Temple, anything can happen.

Shaun Champion, 24, emerged as a legitimate threat when he posted a 51.28s PB at the Open nationals on the Gold Coast, more than half a second ahead of Armbruster in third. Kyle Chalmers plans to race the event, keen to put his case forward for consideration as a mixed medley relay heat swimmer in Paris.

Coleman is an emerging teen from the Gold Coast with tremendous potential, so don’t be surprised if his times take another giant drop at the trials.

Then there is Simpson who at 27 is perhaps facing the greatest challenge of them all. He was more than a second behind Champion at the nationals, but is known to drop time when fully tapered.

While the QT is a serious task, Australian selectors will definitely take the second place finisher regardless of time to Paris simply because they need medley relay heat swimmers at the Olympic Games.

PREDICTION: Matthew Temple, Shaun Champion

It will be a real shock if an Australian qualifies for this event. The 200m butterfly has long been one of the weakest events in Australian men’s swimming and although Bowen Gough has the fastest seed time, he needs to drop over a second to reach the QT. At 26, such a sharp drop in time is difficult but not impossible.

PREDICTION: No qualifiers

No Australian has gone under the Olympic qualifying time since the start of last year, so it’s going to take some incredible performances from these athletes to swim their way onto the Paris team. Neill has been the most consistent but he didn’t race this event at the Open nationals in April so it will be interesting to see how much improvement he has made since last year. You’d think his best shot at making the Olympic team is in the 4x200m freestyle relay.

Petric, 19, looks promising and with a strong breaststroke leg he could be one to take another big jump in time after winning the nationals title.

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PREDICTION: William Petric, Thomas Neill

Tokyo Olympic bronze medallist Brendon Smith is the man to beat in this race and, at this stage, one of only two Aussies who have gone quick enough to qualify for the Olympic Games. Such is the cut-throat nature of Australia’s brutal qualification standards, selectors won’t pick athletes who don’t reach the qualifying times so the likes of Neill and Petric will need sizeable personal best times to book their ticket to Paris.

PREDICTION: Brendon Smith, William Petric