Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina announce themselves as tennis’ new power women

Whatever else we got to know about her fierce American opponent Danielle Collins during that fortnight, the main thing too unpalatable to contemplate was that she might beat Our Ash and, of course, she ultimately did not.

Twelve months on, there will be another first-time Open winner crowned at Melbourne Park on Saturday night and so, this time, what do we know?

In Elena Rybakina’s case, a whole lot more than we did before the adopted Kazakh with the Russian roots and subdued celebrations succeeded Barty as Wimbledon champion in July.

In Aryna Sabalenka’s, that she has long had the big bang weapons to win a major, but not necessarily the calmness, control or composure to carry her all the way there.

Rybakina is 23, with a misleading ranking of #25, given the no-points situation at Wimbledon due to the contentious ban of Russian and Belarusian players.

Plus one of the best serves in the women’s game.

Sabalenka is 24, the world No.5 whose fourth major semi finally delivered her first success, as a player barred from the All England Club (see Belarus, above), and listed as a “neutral” here.

With one of the most ballistic forehands in the game.

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There have been repeated references to the fact that Rybakina was relegated to court 13 for her opening round match, despite being one of the two reigning major champions — with world No.1 Iga Swiatek — in the women’s draw.

Her typically measured response was that it’s not where you start but where you finish, and here she is on Rod Laver Arena for the one that matters most.

With parents Andrey and Ekaterina in town, unusually, and sister Anna back to reprise her Wimbledon support role as something of a lucky charm, Rybakina now has the resources and willingness to invest in herself with a larger team that includes a travelling strength and conditioning expert and physiotherapist.

Her coach Stefano Vukov, says the support group provides the energy for the player he describes as “more of an introvert”, but also a “sweetheart” he finds a pleasure to work with.

“She‘s a wonderful girl,’’ he says. “She listens, listens a lot. That’s very rare, I think. She’s involved 100 per cent into the sport, into what she does. Very calm, stoic.’’

Her fairy godfather is Kazakh oligarch and tennis federation boss Bulat Utemuratov, who has pumped many millions into the sport, and helped lure Russians such as Rybakina, Alexander Bublik and Andrey Golubev, by delivering more support than is available in their homeland.

Rybakina made the nationality switch in 2018, at the age of 19, with Russian Yevgeny Kafelnikov and the ever-controversial president Shamil Tarpischev among those attempting to claim her triumph at the All England Club on Russia’s behalf.

There, she was badgered about her citizenship and even asked to show her passport, with John McEnroe in the commentary box saying “I don’t mean to get into politics, but she is Russian, right?’’. Not quite the boundlessly joyful experience it should have been.

“I think we haven’t appreciated what a great player we have in the making,’’ says British commentator Sam Smith.

“Yes she won Wimbledon, but I don’t think we gave her enough kudos. When you watch her closely, her stroke production, everything she does, the composure, we may be looking at someone who might win 10 slams, potentially.’’

Smith’s Nine stablemate, Todd Woodbridge compares Rybakina’s game style and quality to 23-slam winner Serena Williams in her prime, and believes the Belarusian could get to double digits.

At 183cm, her game is still developing defensively and elsewhere, but Rybakina believes that Wimbledon triumph, including recovering from a set down in the final against Ons Jabeur, has helped significantly.

Asked whether she already feels her best is superior to anyone else’s on tour right now, Rybakina said: “If I perform like I did this week and it‘s going to be consistently for sure, I will say that I can be No.1, I can beat anyone. For now I need to find my consistency also.’’

Beaten semi-finalist Victoria Azarenka offered qualified praise for her opponent, who is guaranteed to make her top 10 debut on Monday, and could rise as high as No.8.

“I think she‘s a great player. She obviously has big weapons,’’ Azarenka said.

“I want to see how she is in five years. It will be interesting.’’

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Think Sabalenka, think service yips. More than twice as many double faults (428 at an average of 7.78 for the self-declared ‘queen of that statistic in 2022) as anyone else on the WTA Tour.

But that was last season. With the help of a biomechanics expert she consulted before the Cincinnati tournament in August who overhauled her whole motion via video in the space of just five days, that situation is much improved (22 in six rounds at an average of 3.66). Sabalenka has also logged 29 aces with Rybakina the leader on 44 (compared with just 13 doubles).

“Whew. I mean, I‘ve done a lot,’’ Sabalenka says.” I worked so hard. Even when my serve was – how did you say – ’disaster’? I worked a lot on my serve. I was keep trying, keep believing, keep changing.

“I thought it‘s mentally, but it wasn’t … In the end of the season when I start working with the biomechanic guy, he helped me a lot.’’

Think Sabalenka, think slightly “crazy” on court. Her word.

But not so much any more. She has not lost a set of her 20 this year, in either Adelaide or Melbourne, and appears to be far more in control of her emotions en route back to a guaranteed ranking of No.2 after a strong finish to 2022 at the WTA Finals in Texas.

After a slightly shaky start to her semi-final, against Magda Linette, old Aryna might have combusted. New Aryna held it together. Had a slight wobble when attempting to serve out the match, but won in straight sets.

“Probably before I would start screaming on everybody, like feeling bad, starting to overhit balls. I was like, ‘OK, that‘s happen, that’s fine. I’ll just keep working, keep trying, and I think I will find my rhythm’.’’

This has come after she ditched her sports psychologist, deciding the only person who can fix her problems is Sabalenka herself.

“I just have to take this responsibility and I just have to deal with that. I‘m my psychologist.’’

What might once have been a scary idea seems to be working, with less self-flagellation after bad points or errors for an open, forthright and animated character whose game, like her persona, are many things but rarely dull.

“Actually, I‘m not that boring, I think,’’ she says. “I’m still screaming ’C’mon’ and all that stuff. I don’t think it’s that boring to watch me. I hope so. Just less negative emotions.’’

So why now?

“I think there is a lot of seeds we have been planting for several years now that have been slowly growing over time,’’ says her fitness trainer Jason Stacy. “The experience last year of facing a lot of humility and fear, and instead of avoiding it or trying to go around it, she went right through it, hit it face on.

“I think it‘s given her this more internal belief that OK, even if this particular game or this moment in a match is tough, it’s like, ‘OK, just keep going and it will all come back together’.’’

Stacy said Team Aryna’s plan was to provide her with a sense of control.

“So that she wasn‘t out there with 50 different voices in her head and freaking out and all over the place.

“She could just turn down the volume of all that resistance in her head and just be able to focus on the task at hand. We did that by giving her some clarity on what to do. Reduce the stress level which allows her to control her emotions better and be in better control of that fierceness that she has.’’

Only at the age of 19 or so did Sabalenka start to gain the belief that she could win a grand slam title, but Woodbridge feels she may not quite ready yet. “I have no doubt that she will get there, but I think she’s one of those that have to keep on learning and take it incrementally.’’

A new start, though?

“I want believe so, you know?’‘ Sabalenka said after defeating Belinda Bencic. “I want believe that the way I’m working right now, the way I’m on the court right now, this is the new beginning, and this is the next step’’

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Sabalenka leads 3-0 head to head. Two on hardcourt. One on grass. All in three sets.

Both are fine athletes and strong off the ground, although Rybakina’s coach, Vukic, believes the serve is what will decide the match.

“I think Aryna is an extremely powerful player, great forehand. Can have a great serving day. Can have a bad serving day, something we will try to capitalise on,’’ he said.

“Elena is a good rhythm player, so she can feed off the pace of Aryna also. I think on the backhand side we are a little bit stronger. But as a matchup, I mean, it‘s gonna be a lot of mistakes, a lot of winners, I’m sure about that, from both sides because there is going to be a lot of pressure.

“I think who serves well goes through. That‘s my feeling.’’

The semi was Rybakina’s first night match, and she believes the slower, heavier conditions means placement will be more important than speed, with a similar mindset from the baseline, where the aim will be to play deeper, move forward and expect longer rallies than usual.

Given what has happened since the pair’s most recent match, at Wimbledon in 2020, Sabalenka’s coach Anton Dubrov believes it counts as almost a lifetime ago for both.

“Aryna lost serve. Then she found the serve. Meanwhile, Rybakina won a slam. They are both kind of came here from, like, different directions. So I would say that for a moment in this match, all previous matches like doesn‘t matter at all.”

Sam Smith said on Nine she believes Rybakina’s game will be more secure in the heat of a grand slam final, which, in singles, is a place the dual major doubles champion – including here with Elise Mertens in 2011 – has never been before.

Yet nor had she won a major semi until Thursday, and if “steady” is not typically a word that has been used to describe a player nicknamed The Tiger and with the forearm tattoo to match then her own definition of the term seems to sum up Sabalenka 2.0.

“I‘m aggressive player,’’ she says. “I’m just trying to stay calm on court and just wait for the opportunities, just try to, if I have it, take it.’’